Espanyol2 - 0Athletic Club
EspanyolWhy did AI enter 6 times at 0', 17', 30', 43', 53', 56' — and still finish $-4497?
Match Overview
Espanyol hosted Athletic Club in the La Liga, finishing 2-0. Goals: P. Milla (69'), K. Garcia (90'). OddsFlow deployed 21 trades across 6 waves, achieving 10% precision with a net result of $-4497.00 (ROI: -74.6%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at 0 but home odds shifted from 2.09 to 2; the Over/Under stayed at 2.25 with Over odds moving from 1.8 to 1.95.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Athletic Club. Average expected value was 22.5%, with a combined stake of $325. The sharpest edge was on Athletic Club (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 44.9% probability versus the market's implied 36.6% — a 8.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2.73. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-325.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 17' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 17'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Athletic Club 0. Average expected value was 32.0%, with a combined stake of $350. The sharpest edge was on Athletic Club 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 71.0% probability versus the market's implied 51.0% — a 20.0 percentage point gap at odds of 1.96. **Result:** All 3 trades lost, netting $-350.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 30' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 30'. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Athletic Club 0 and Athletic Club. Average expected value was 33.1%, with a combined stake of $2855. The sharpest edge was on Athletic Club 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 73.0% probability versus the market's implied 49.0% — a 24.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2.04. **Result:** All 12 trades lost, netting $-2855.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 43' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 43'. 2 models (system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 5.0%, with a combined stake of $1000. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-1000.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 53' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 53'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 4.7%, with a combined stake of $500. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-500.00. ### Wave 6 — Minute 56' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 56'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 0.5. Average expected value was 8.0%, with a combined stake of $1000. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$533.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 30'** — Asian Handicap Athletic Club 0: AI saw 73.0% vs market's 49.0% (24.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 30'** — Asian Handicap Athletic Club 0: AI saw 73.0% vs market's 49.3% (23.7pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 30'** — Asian Handicap Athletic Club 0: AI saw 73.0% vs market's 49.4% (23.6pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 30'** — Asian Handicap Athletic Club 0: AI saw 72.4% vs market's 49.0% (23.4pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 30'** — Asian Handicap Athletic Club 0: AI saw 72.4% vs market's 49.3% (23.2pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-325.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 3 trades, 0W/3L, $-350.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 5 trades, 1W/4L, $-987.50 (ROI: -56.3%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 5 trades, 1W/4L, $-1008.50 (ROI: -56.8%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 7 trades, 0W/7L, $-1826.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 64–36 in Espanyol's favor. Espanyol had 12 shots (5 on target) versus Athletic Club's 11 (4 on target). Expected goals: Espanyol 0.79 — Athletic Club 0.82. Corners: 8-9.
Verdict
A tough session at -74.6% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: S5.1_Pre at $-325.00.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 35.3% / 30.8% / 36.6% |
| Asian handicap | 0 | 51.8% |
| Over / Under | 2.25 | 51.3% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly underestimated Espanyol's win probability and ability to cover the handicap.
Espanyol secured a decisive 2-0 victory over Athletic Club in La Liga. In the 1x2 market, the market assigned Espanyol a 35.34% win probability, making Athletic Club (36.63%) the slight favorite. Espanyol's outright win at 2.83 odds demonstrated significant Closing Line Value (CLV). The Asian Handicap with a 0 line saw Athletic Club slightly favored at 51.81% to cover. Espanyol's dominant 2-0 performance resulted in them comfortably covering the spread, highlighting a clear market inefficiency. For the Totals (Over/Under 2.25), the market was perfectly balanced with both Over and Under probabilities at 51.28%. The match concluded with 2 total goals, falling directly on the Under side of the 2.25 line, suggesting the market slightly overestimated the potential for higher goal volume.
A tough session at -74.6% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: PreMatch Edge at $-325.00.
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