Elche1 - 0Valencia
ElcheWhy did AI enter 6 times at 35', 42', 68', 71', 74', 82' — and still finish $-1587?
Match Overview
Elche hosted Valencia in the La Liga, finishing 1-0. Goals: L. Cepeda (73'). OddsFlow deployed 11 trades across 6 waves, achieving 36% precision with a net result of $-1587.00 (ROI: -26.3%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from -0.25 to 0; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.25 to 2.5; the home moneyline drifted out from 2.34 to 2.61.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 35' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 35'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Valencia 0 and Draw. Average expected value was 7.9%, with a combined stake of $1500. The sharpest edge was on Valencia 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 62.6% probability versus the market's implied 54.1% — a 8.6 percentage point gap at odds of 1.85. **Result:** All 3 trades lost, netting $-1500.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 42' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 42'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 4.7%, with a combined stake of $500. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-500.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 68' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 68'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 0.5. Average expected value was 9.8%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Over 0.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 70.0% probability versus the market's implied 63.7% — a 6.3 percentage point gap at odds of 1.571. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$285.50. ### Wave 4 — Minute 71' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 71'. 1 model (system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Draw and Valencia 0. Average expected value was 23.5%, with a combined stake of $1239. The sharpest edge was on Valencia 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 77.1% probability versus the market's implied 54.1% — a 23.0 percentage point gap at odds of 1.85. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-1239.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 74' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Elche leading 1-0 at 74'. L. Cepeda scored moments ago. 3 models (system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Valencia -1. Average expected value was 40.7%, with a combined stake of $2095. The sharpest edge was on Valencia -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 97.2% probability versus the market's implied 58.8% — a 38.4 percentage point gap at odds of 1.7. **Result:** All 3 trades won, netting +$1466.50. ### Wave 6 — Minute 82' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Elche leading 1-0 at 82'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Valencia +0.25. Average expected value was 8.2%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Valencia +0.25 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 56.4% probability versus the market's implied 48.2% — a 8.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2.075. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-100.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 76'** — Asian Handicap Valencia -1: AI saw 97.2% vs market's 58.8% (38.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 74'** — Asian Handicap Valencia -1: AI saw 97.2% vs market's 58.8% (38.3pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 76'** — Asian Handicap Valencia -1: AI saw 97.1% vs market's 58.8% (38.3pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 71'** — Asian Handicap Valencia 0: AI saw 77.1% vs market's 54.1% (23.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 71'** — Moneyline Draw: AI saw 57.2% vs market's 38.1% (19.1pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/0L/1V, $-100.00 (ROI: -50.0%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 4 trades, 2W/2L, $-286.10 (ROI: -13.5%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 3 trades, 1W/2L, $-573.00 (ROI: -35.6%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 3 trades, 1W/2L, $-627.90 (ROI: -29.7%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 58%–42% in Elche's favor. Elche had 8 shots (2 on target) versus Valencia's 22 (8 on target). Expected goals: Elche 0.57 — Valencia 2.33. Corners: 5-9.
Verdict
A tough session at -26.3% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: oddsflow_core_v8.1 at $-100.00.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 38.3% / 29.9% / 34.6% |
| Asian handicap | 0 | 53.8% |
| Over / Under | 2.5 | 48.8% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market accurately predicted a low-scoring game (Under 2.5 goals), confirming a strong value signal.
In the La Liga fixture between Elche and Valencia, which concluded 1-0 in favor of Elche, OddsFlow AI identified a significant area of market efficiency in the Totals market. The Closing Line for Over/Under was set at 2.5 goals, with the market leaning heavily towards the Under at 53.48% implied probability (odds 1.87). The actual outcome of 1 total goal firmly landed this fixture Under 2.5, confirming the market's accurate assessment of a low-scoring affair and validating a strong Value Signal. Conversely, the 1x2 market saw Elche as a slight favorite with a 38.31% win probability, and they secured the victory. The Handicap (0 line) also showed Elche as the favorite to cover at 53.76% probability, which they did. The most striking accuracy, however, was in the Totals, where the market sentiment was strongly validated.
A tough session at -26.3% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: Oddsflow Core Strategy at $-100.00.
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