Elche

2 - 1

Mallorca

Elche hosted Mallorca in the La Liga, finishing 2-1. Goals: P. Torre (58'), R. Mir (62'), Tete Morente (71'). OddsFlow deployed 16 trades across 4 waves, achieving 63% precision with a net result of +$2649.39 (ROI: +28.6%).

The Asian Handicap line moved from -0.25 to -0.5.

### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Mallorca 0 and Over 1.5 and Elche. Average expected value was 13.1%, with a combined stake of $3808. The sharpest edge was on Over 1.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 81.3% probability versus the market's implied 65.2% — a 16.0 percentage point gap at odds of 1.533. **Result:** 4 of 6 trades won, netting +$1163.66. ### Wave 2 — Minute 59' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Mallorca leading 0-1 at 59'. P. Torre scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Elche +0.5. Average expected value was 41.5%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Elche +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 79.2% probability versus the market's implied 40.0% — a 39.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2.5. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$1500.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 62' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after R. Mir's equalizer at 62'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline and Over/Under markets, targeting Draw and Over 2.5. Average expected value was 9.5%, with a combined stake of $2000. The sharpest edge was on Draw (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 42.0% probability versus the market's implied 28.6% — a 13.5 percentage point gap at odds of 3.5. **Result:** 2 of 4 trades won, netting $-429.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 72' (Score: 2-1) **Context:** Elche leading 2-1 at 72'. Tete Morente scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Mallorca -1 and Over 3.5. Average expected value was 33.6%, with a combined stake of $2451. The sharpest edge was on Mallorca -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 95.9% probability versus the market's implied 50.6% — a 45.3 percentage point gap at odds of 1.975. **Result:** 2 of 4 trades won, netting +$414.73.

- **Minute 72'** — Asian Handicap Mallorca -1: AI saw 95.9% vs market's 50.6% (45.3pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 72'** — Asian Handicap Mallorca -1: AI saw 95.8% vs market's 50.6% (45.1pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 59'** — Asian Handicap Elche +0.5: AI saw 79.2% vs market's 40.0% (39.2pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 59'** — Asian Handicap Elche +0.5: AI saw 78.8% vs market's 40.0% (38.8pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 72'** — Over/Under Over 3.5: AI saw 70.0% vs market's 52.4% (17.6pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.

- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 8 trades, 5W/3L, +$1326.16 (ROI: +28.6%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 8 trades, 5W/3L, +$1323.23 (ROI: +28.6%)

Possession was 48%–52% in Elche's deficit. Elche had 11 shots (4 on target) versus Mallorca's 11 (4 on target). Expected goals: Elche 1.49 — Mallorca 1.47. Corners: 1-2.