Elche1 - 0Getafe
ElcheWhat went wrong? 2 trades, $-25 — the AI's post-mortem.
Match Overview
Elche hosted Getafe in the La Liga, finishing 1-0. Goals: V. Chust (19'). Getafe received a red card (Djene, 39'). OddsFlow deployed 2 trades across 1 wave, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-25.00 (ROI: -100.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap remained steady at -0.25; the Over/Under stayed at 2 with Over odds moving from 1.85 to 1.99.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Getafe. Average expected value was 23.0%, with a combined stake of $25. The sharpest edge was on Getafe (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 34.3% probability versus the market's implied 26.9% — a 7.4 percentage point gap at odds of 3.72. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-25.00.
Model Performance
- **S5.1_Pre**: 2 trades, 0W/2L, $-25.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 59–41 in Elche's favor. Elche had 10 shots (3 on target) versus Getafe's 3 (0 on target). Expected goals: Elche 0.46 — Getafe 0.08. Corners: 4-0.
Verdict
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 42.5% / 33.3% / 26.9% |
| Asian handicap | -0.25 | 50.5% |
| Over / Under | 2 | 50.3% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market underestimated Elche covering the -0.25 Asian Handicap.
The match concluded with Elche securing a 1-0 victory over Getafe. In the 1x2 Moneyline market, Elche was correctly identified as the favorite with a 42.55% implied probability, aligning with the actual outcome. However, the most notable market inefficiency emerged in the Asian Handicap market. Despite Elche winning 1-0 and thus covering the -0.25 handicap line, the closing market odds indicated a slightly higher probability (51.55%) for Getafe +0.25 to cover, compared to Elche -0.25 at 50.51%. This represents a clear Value Signal for Elche -0.25, as the market underestimated their ability to secure the win and cover the spread. The Totals (Over/Under) market for 2 goals was efficient, with the market leaning towards the Under (52.08% probability) and the match ending with only 1 goal.
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions.
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