Elche2 - 2Espanyol
ElcheWhy did AI enter 2 times at 15', 25' — and still finish $-1129?
Match Overview
Elche hosted Espanyol in the La Liga, finishing 2-2. Goals: K. Garcia (7'), M. Aguado (42'), M. Aguado (43'), C. Romero (57'), R. Mir (89' pen). Espanyol received a red card (C. Pickel, 90'). OddsFlow deployed 3 trades across 2 waves, achieving 33% precision with a net result of $-1129.28 (ROI: -73.4%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -0.25 but home odds shifted from 2.15 to 2.12; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.25 to 2.5.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 15' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Espanyol leading 0-1 at 15'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Elche -0.25. Average expected value was 6.3%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Elche -0.25 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 55.0% probability versus the market's implied 48.8% — a 6.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2.05. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$210.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Espanyol leading 0-1 at 25'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Elche. Average expected value was 7.4%, with a combined stake of $1339. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-1339.28.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 3 trades, 1W/2L, $-1129.28 (ROI: -73.4%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 70%–30% in Elche's favor. Elche had 17 shots (9 on target) versus Espanyol's 9 (4 on target). Expected goals: Elche 1.86 — Espanyol 0.73. Corners: 3-1.
Verdict
A tough session at -73.4% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 40.3% / 30.3% / 32.0% |
| Asian handicap | -0.25 | 55.0% |
| Over / Under | 2.5 | 49.5% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
Under 2.5 Goals a Missed Opportunity
The La Liga clash between Elche and Espanyol concluded in a 2-2 draw, resulting in a total of 4 goals. The 1x2 market initially priced Elche as a marginal favorite with a 40.32% implied win probability, contrasting with the eventual draw. On the Asian Handicap, Espanyol was slightly favored at +0.25 (54.95% to cover), which proved accurate as the draw ensured they covered the line. However, the most notable market inefficiency was observed in the Totals market. Despite the closing line favoring Under 2.5 goals (53.19% implied probability), the match saw a robust 4 goals, comfortably hitting the Over. This indicates a significant misjudgment by the market in anticipating the game's scoring potential, presenting a clear EV+ opportunity for those backing the Over.
A tough session at -73.4% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions.
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