Elche1 - 3Barcelona
ElcheWhat went wrong? 3 trades, $-162 — the AI's post-mortem.
Match Overview
Elche hosted Barcelona in the La Liga, finishing 1-3. Goals: Lamine Yamal (6'), A. Rodriguez (29'), F. Torres (40'), M. Rashford (72'). OddsFlow deployed 3 trades across 1 wave, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-162.00 (ROI: -100.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from 1.5 to 1.75; the Over/Under stayed at 3.5 with Over odds moving from 1.99 to 1.92; the home moneyline drifted out from 6.15 to 8.55.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 39' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after A. Rodriguez's equalizer at 29'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 4.5. Average expected value was 2.2%, with a combined stake of $162. **Result:** All 3 trades lost, netting $-162.00.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 3 trades, 0W/3L, $-162.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 35%–65% in Elche's deficit. Elche had 6 shots (1 on target) versus Barcelona's 24 (7 on target). Expected goals: Elche 0.61 — Barcelona 5.02. Corners: 1-6.
Verdict
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 11.7% / 15.7% / 76.3% |
| Asian handicap | -1.75 | 48.8% |
| Over / Under | 3.5 | 52.1% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
Underestimation of Barcelona's -1.75 Asian Handicap cover.
Match context: Elche (1) vs Barcelona (3) in La Liga. Barcelona secured a decisive 3-1 victory. The 1x2 market correctly identified Barcelona as heavy favorites (76.34% implied win probability), and the actual result aligned with this expectation, indicating efficient pricing in the outright winner market. However, a notable market inefficiency emerged in the Asian Handicap. With a closing line of Barcelona -1.75, the market surprisingly tilted towards Elche covering +1.75 (53.76% probability). Barcelona's 3-1 win meant they comfortably covered the -1.75 handicap by winning with a 2-goal margin. This represents significant Closing Line Value (CLV) for bettors who backed Barcelona -1.75. The Totals market (O/U 3.5) saw a slight lean towards the Over (52.08% probability). The match produced 4 goals, confirming the Over. While the market sentiment was accurate, the degree of underestimation in the handicap market was more pronounced.
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions.
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