Elche1 - 1Alaves
ElcheWhy did AI enter 5 times at 0', 15', 25', 51', 73' — and still finish $-357?
Match Overview
Elche hosted Alaves in the La Liga, finishing 1-1. Goals: T. Martinez (51' pen), A. Rodriguez (72'). OddsFlow deployed 14 trades across 5 waves, achieving 43% precision with a net result of $-356.60 (ROI: -4.9%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -0.25 but home odds shifted from 1.93 to 1.95; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.75 to 2.5.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 2.5. Average expected value was 34.8%, with a combined stake of $870. The sharpest edge was on Over 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 67.4% probability versus the market's implied 50.0% — a 17.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-870.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 15' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 15'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Alaves 0. Average expected value was 11.7%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Alaves 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 55.5% probability versus the market's implied 46.5% — a 9.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2.15. **Result:** 0 of 1 trades won, netting +$0.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under and Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Over 1.5 and Alaves 0 and Elche. Average expected value was 13.4%, with a combined stake of $2660. The sharpest edge was on Alaves 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 59.0% probability versus the market's implied 44.4% — a 14.5 percentage point gap at odds of 2.25. **Result:** 2 of 5 trades won, netting +$213.40. ### Wave 4 — Minute 51' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 51'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Elche +0.5 and Elche and Alaves. Average expected value was 13.5%, with a combined stake of $2500. The sharpest edge was on Elche +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 73.6% probability versus the market's implied 50.0% — a 23.6 percentage point gap at odds of 2. **Result:** 2 of 5 trades won, netting $-500.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 73' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after A. Rodriguez's equalizer at 72'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 9.3%, with a combined stake of $1000. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$800.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 51'** — Asian Handicap Elche +0.5: AI saw 73.6% vs market's 50.0% (23.6pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 51'** — Asian Handicap Elche +0.5: AI saw 72.6% vs market's 50.0% (22.6pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 0'** — Over/Under Over 2.5: AI saw 67.4% vs market's 50.0% (17.4pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Alaves 0: AI saw 59.0% vs market's 44.4% (14.5pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Alaves 0: AI saw 58.3% vs market's 44.4% (13.8pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 6 trades, 3W/2L/1V, +$264.08 (ROI: +8.5%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 6 trades, 3W/2L/1V, +$249.32 (ROI: +8.1%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/0L/1V, +$0.00 (ROI: +0.0%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-870.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 66–34 in Elche's favor. Elche had 16 shots (5 on target) versus Alaves's 11 (4 on target). Expected goals: Elche 1.46 — Alaves 1.68. Corners: 7-3.
Verdict
A marginally negative session at -4.9% ROI. The edge identification was sound but variance went against the positions. Top performer: system4_BLEND_v10 at +$264.08.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 43.7% / 30.9% / 28.6% |
| Asian handicap | -0.25 | 51.3% |
| Over / Under | 2.5 | 50.0% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The 1x2 market significantly undervalued the draw outcome.
The match between Elche and Alaves concluded in a 1-1 draw. In the 1x2 market, the closing line implied a 43.67% chance for an Elche win and only 30.86% for a draw, indicating a clear undervaluation of the draw outcome by the market. On the Asian Handicap (-0.25 for Elche), the market assigned near-even probabilities (51.28% for Elche to cover), but the draw meant Alaves effectively covered the +0.25 spread, leading to a half-win for Alaves backers. For the Totals (O/U 2.5), the market correctly leaned towards the Under with a 53.19% implied probability, as the match finished with 2 goals, confirming the Under. The primary market inefficiency was the significant underestimation of the draw in the 1x2 market.
A marginally negative session at -4.9% ROI. The edge identification was sound but variance went against the positions. Top performer: Active Trader at +$264.08.
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