Celta Vigo1 - 2Real Madrid
Celta VigoWhy did AI enter 2 times at 29', 32' — and still finish $-246?
Match Overview
Celta Vigo hosted Real Madrid in the La Liga, finishing 1-2. Goals: A. Tchouameni (11'), B. Iglesias (25'), F. Valverde (90'). OddsFlow deployed 2 trades across 2 waves, achieving 50% precision with a net result of $-246.30 (ROI: -13.7%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from 0.75 to 0.25; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.75 to 2.25; the home moneyline shortened from 4.16 to 3.28.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 29' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after B. Iglesias's equalizer at 25'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Real Madrid. Average expected value was 7.2%, with a combined stake of $644. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$901.46. ### Wave 2 — Minute 32' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after B. Iglesias's equalizer at 25'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Celta Vigo. Average expected value was 20.2%, with a combined stake of $1148. The sharpest edge was on Celta Vigo (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 37.6% probability versus the market's implied 31.3% — a 6.3 percentage point gap at odds of 3.2. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-1147.76.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 2 trades, 1W/1L, $-246.30 (ROI: -13.7%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 36%–64% in Celta Vigo's deficit. Celta Vigo had 8 shots (4 on target) versus Real Madrid's 13 (2 on target). Expected goals: Celta Vigo 1.05 — Real Madrid 0.8. Corners: 1-6.
Verdict
A tough session at -13.7% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample.
A tough session at -13.7% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions.
See AI signals as they happen
This report shows settled results. Get real-time AI signals during live matches.