Celta Vigo1 - 2Osasuna
Celta VigoWhy did AI enter 2 times at 18', 24' — and still finish $-200?
Match Overview
Celta Vigo hosted Osasuna in the La Liga, finishing 1-2. Goals: A. Budimir (35'), B. Iglesias (53' pen), R. Garcia (79'), R. Garcia (80'). OddsFlow deployed 2 trades across 2 waves, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-200.00 (ROI: -100.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -0.5 but home odds shifted from 1.97 to 1.98; the Over/Under stayed at 2.25 with Over odds moving from 1.94 to 1.85.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 18' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 18'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Celta Vigo -0.25. Average expected value was 5.1%, with a combined stake of $171. The sharpest edge was on Celta Vigo -0.25 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 62.3% probability versus the market's implied 57.1% — a 5.1 percentage point gap at odds of 1.75. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-170.90. ### Wave 2 — Minute 24' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 24'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Celta Vigo -0.5. Average expected value was 10.0%, with a combined stake of $29. The sharpest edge was on Celta Vigo -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 58.8% probability versus the market's implied 48.8% — a 10.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2.05. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-29.10.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 2 trades, 0W/2L, $-200.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 57%–43% in Celta Vigo's favor. Celta Vigo had 17 shots (4 on target) versus Osasuna's 8 (2 on target). Expected goals: Celta Vigo 2.07 — Osasuna 0.67. Corners: 7-3.
Verdict
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 50.8% / 28.9% / 23.3% |
| Asian handicap | -0.5 | 50.5% |
| Over / Under | 2.25 | 54.0% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The 1x2 market severely underestimated Osasuna's chances for an outright win.
Osasuna secured an unexpected 2-1 away victory against Celta Vigo. The 1x2 market significantly mispriced this outcome, with Celta Vigo closing as strong favorites (50.76% implied win probability) and Osasuna at a mere 23.31%. This represents substantial Closing Line Value (CLV) on Osasuna. The Asian Handicap market, set at Celta Vigo -0.5, saw Osasuna successfully cover their +0.5 line, aligning with the slight market lean towards the underdog covering (51.55%). In the Totals market, the Over 2.25 goals hit (3 total goals), consistent with the market's lean towards the Over (54.05%). The primary inefficiency was the undervalued outright win for Osasuna.
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions.
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