Celta Vigo2 - 0Mallorca
Celta Vigo1 trades, 100% precision — how did AI read this match?
Match Overview
Celta Vigo hosted Mallorca in the La Liga, finishing 2-0. Goals: I. Aspas (85' pen), I. Aspas (90'). OddsFlow deployed 1 trades across 1 wave, achieving 100% precision with a net result of +$701.08 (ROI: +120.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap remained steady at -0.5; the Over/Under stayed at 2.25 with Over odds moving from 1.98 to 1.92.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 51' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 51'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Celta Vigo. Average expected value was 5.6%, with a combined stake of $584. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$701.08.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$701.08 (ROI: +120.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 58%–42% in Celta Vigo's favor. Celta Vigo had 19 shots (6 on target) versus Mallorca's 1 (0 on target). Expected goals: Celta Vigo 2.15 — Mallorca 0.04. Corners: 7-2.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +120.0% ROI.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 53.2% / 28.2% / 21.5% |
| Asian handicap | -0.5 | 53.2% |
| Over / Under | 2.25 | 52.1% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
Overvaluation of Over 2.25 Goals
The match between Celta Vigo and Mallorca concluded 2-0, with Celta Vigo securing the home victory. In the 1x2 market, OddsFlow AI's model correctly identified Celta Vigo as the market favorite with a 53.19% implied win probability, which aligned with the actual outcome. Similarly, on the Asian Handicap (-0.5), Celta Vigo was also favored to cover with a 53.19% probability, and their 2-0 win successfully covered the spread. The primary market inefficiency was observed in the Totals (Over/Under 2.25) market. The closing probabilities indicated a slight lean towards the Over (52.08%) compared to the Under (50.25%). However, with only 2 goals scored in the match, the "Under 2.25" bet resulted in a half-win. This suggests the market slightly overestimated the total goal count, presenting a positive Expected Value (EV+) for bettors who took the Under.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +120.0% ROI on 1 trades.
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