Celta Vigo2 - 3Levante
Celta VigoWhy did AI enter 5 times at 25', 30', 43', 57', 63' — and still finish $-933?
Match Overview
Celta Vigo hosted Levante in the La Liga, finishing 2-3. Goals: F. Jutgla (4'), F. Jutgla (5'), K. Arriaga (43'), K. Arriaga (44'), F. Jutgla (47'), F. Jutgla (48'), Dela (57'), R. Brugue (63'). OddsFlow deployed 42 trades across 5 waves, achieving 36% precision with a net result of $-932.58 (ROI: -7.4%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from -0.75 to -0.5; the home moneyline drifted out from 1.72 to 1.88.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Celta Vigo leading 1-0 at 25'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Levante -1 and Under 3 and Under 3.5 and Levante -0.25. Average expected value was 41.4%, with a combined stake of $3484. The sharpest edge was on Levante -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 83.5% probability versus the market's implied 45.5% — a 38.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2.2. **Result:** 6 of 12 trades won, netting +$972.80. ### Wave 2 — Minute 30' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Celta Vigo leading 1-0 at 30'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 2.5. Average expected value was 8.2%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Under 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 48.7% probability versus the market's implied 42.1% — a 6.6 percentage point gap at odds of 2.375. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-1000.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 43' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Celta Vigo leading 1-0 at 43'. K. Arriaga scored moments ago. 3 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10, oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline and Over/Under markets, targeting Levante 0 and Celta Vigo and Levante -0.25 and Draw and Under 4.5. Average expected value was 17.8%, with a combined stake of $3847. The sharpest edge was on Celta Vigo (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 76.6% probability versus the market's implied 43.5% — a 33.1 percentage point gap at odds of 2.3. **Result:** 4 of 11 trades won, netting $-796.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 57' (Score: 2-2) **Context:** Level at 2-2 after Dela's equalizer at 57'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 6.6%, with a combined stake of $516. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-516.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 63' (Score: 2-3) **Context:** Levante leading 2-3 at 63'. R. Brugue scored moments ago. Levante made 3 substitutions. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Levante and Celta Vigo +0.5 and Celta Vigo -0.25 and Over 5.75 and Over 5.5. Average expected value was 32.8%, with a combined stake of $3780. The sharpest edge was on Celta Vigo +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 85.5% probability versus the market's implied 41.2% — a 44.3 percentage point gap at odds of 2.425. **Result:** 5 of 15 trades won, netting +$406.62.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 63'** — Asian Handicap Celta Vigo +0.5: AI saw 85.5% vs market's 41.2% (44.3pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 64'** — Asian Handicap Celta Vigo +0.5: AI saw 85.2% vs market's 41.2% (43.9pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Levante -1: AI saw 83.5% vs market's 45.5% (38.0pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Levante -1: AI saw 83.0% vs market's 45.5% (37.6pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 63'** — Asian Handicap Celta Vigo -0.25: AI saw 85.5% vs market's 50.0% (35.5pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 2 trades, 2W/0L, +$351.00 (ROI: +127.6%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 19 trades, 6W/11L/2V, $-625.10 (ROI: -10.2%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 21 trades, 7W/12L/2V, $-658.48 (ROI: -10.6%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 57–43 in Celta Vigo's favor. Celta Vigo had 11 shots (6 on target) versus Levante's 14 (6 on target). Expected goals: Celta Vigo 2.1 — Levante 1.46. Corners: 2-4.
Verdict
A marginally negative session at -7.4% ROI. The edge identification was sound but variance went against the positions. Top performer: oddsflow_core_v8.1 at +$351.00.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 53.2% / 25.9% / 23.8% |
| Asian handicap | -0.5 | 53.2% |
| Over / Under | 2.75 | 49.0% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly underestimated the total goals, presenting massive EV+ on the Over 2.75 line.
The match between Celta Vigo and Levante concluded with a 2-3 victory for Levante. The 1x2 market showed Celta Vigo as the clear favorite with an implied probability of 53.19%, while Levante's win probability was only 23.75%. This represents a significant market inefficiency as Levante secured an outright win, delivering substantial Closing Line Value (CLV) for away backers. On the Asian Handicap, Celta Vigo was priced at -0.5 with a 53.19% chance to cover. Levante, however, easily covered their +0.5 line by winning the match. The most pronounced market error was observed in the Goals Over/Under market. With a closing line of 2.75, the market leaned towards the Under with a 53.48% implied probability. The match, however, produced a high-scoring 5 goals, making the "Over 2.75" a robust EV+ signal that was heavily underestimated by the bookmakers.
A marginally negative session at -7.4% ROI. The edge identification was sound but variance went against the positions. Top performer: Oddsflow Core Strategy at +$351.00.
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