Celta Vigo

3 - 4

Alaves

Celta Vigo hosted Alaves in the La Liga, finishing 3-4. Goals: F. Jutgla (19'), H. Alvarez (27'), H. Alvarez (28'), F. Jutgla (37'), T. Martinez (45'), A. Perez (50'), J. Rodriguez (56'), T. Martinez (74'), A. Rebbach (78'). OddsFlow deployed 11 trades across 4 waves, achieving 64% precision with a net result of +$3074.30 (ROI: +49.6%).

The Asian Handicap line moved from -0.75 to -0.5; the Over/Under line shifted from 2 to 2.25; the home moneyline drifted out from 1.8 to 1.96.

### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Celta Vigo leading 1-0 at 25'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline and Over/Under markets, targeting Alaves -1 and Celta Vigo and Over 2.5. Average expected value was 29.2%, with a combined stake of $2669. The sharpest edge was on Alaves -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 78.1% probability versus the market's implied 44.4% — a 33.7 percentage point gap at odds of 2.25. **Result:** 3 of 4 trades won, netting +$1624.80. ### Wave 2 — Minute 51' (Score: 3-2) **Context:** Celta Vigo leading 3-2 at 51'. A. Perez scored moments ago. Alaves made 4 substitutions. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 5.5. Average expected value was 32.0%, with a combined stake of $1033. The sharpest edge was on Over 5.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 70.0% probability versus the market's implied 40.0% — a 30.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2.5. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$1549.50. ### Wave 3 — Minute 70' (Score: 3-2) **Context:** Celta Vigo leading 3-2 at 70'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Celta Vigo. Average expected value was 22.9%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Celta Vigo (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 67.0% probability versus the market's implied 51.2% — a 15.8 percentage point gap at odds of 1.952. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-500.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 74' (Score: 3-3) **Context:** Level at 3-3 after T. Martinez's equalizer at 74'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Draw and Alaves 0. Average expected value was 32.5%, with a combined stake of $2000. The sharpest edge was on Draw (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 58.2% probability versus the market's implied 20.0% — a 38.2 percentage point gap at odds of 5. **Result:** 2 of 4 trades won, netting +$400.00.

- **Minute 74'** — Moneyline Draw: AI saw 58.2% vs market's 20.0% (38.2pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 75'** — Asian Handicap Alaves 0: AI saw 78.9% vs market's 41.7% (37.2pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 75'** — Asian Handicap Alaves 0: AI saw 78.7% vs market's 41.7% (37.0pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Alaves -1: AI saw 78.1% vs market's 44.4% (33.7pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Alaves -1: AI saw 78.1% vs market's 45.5% (32.6pp gap). correctly identified.

- **system4_MC_v10**: 6 trades, 4W/2L, +$1669.80 (ROI: +48.5%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 5 trades, 3W/2L, +$1404.50 (ROI: +50.9%)

Possession was 55%–45% in Celta Vigo's favor. Celta Vigo had 11 shots (5 on target) versus Alaves's 14 (6 on target). Expected goals: Celta Vigo 1.62 — Alaves 1.73. Corners: 4-1.