Atletico Madrid3 - 2Real Sociedad
Atletico MadridWhy did AI enter 4 times at 34', 46', 65', 80' — and still finish $-120?
Match Overview
Atletico Madrid hosted Real Sociedad in the La Liga, finishing 3-2. Goals: A. Sorloth (5'), C. Soler (9'), N. Gonzalez (67'), M. Oyarzabal (68'), N. Gonzalez (81'). OddsFlow deployed 4 trades across 4 waves, achieving 75% precision with a net result of $-120.00 (ROI: -10.9%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from -1.25 to -0.75; the Over/Under stayed at 2.75 with Over odds moving from 1.86 to 2.02; the home moneyline drifted out from 1.44 to 1.74.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 34' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1, 34'. 1 model (active_trader_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Atletico Madrid -0.75. Average expected value was 1.0%, with a combined stake of $200. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$90.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 46' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1, 46'. 1 model (handicap_sniper_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Atletico Madrid -0.75. Average expected value was 1.0%, with a combined stake of $200. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$90.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 65' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1, 65'. 1 model (active_trader_v8.1) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 3.5. Average expected value was 21.1%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Under 3.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 63.0% probability versus the market's implied 52.4% — a 10.6 percentage point gap at odds of 1.909. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-500.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 80' (Score: 2-2) **Context:** Level at 2-2 after M. Oyarzabal's equalizer at 68'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Atletico Madrid -0.25. Average expected value was 7.0%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Atletico Madrid -0.25 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 57.0% probability versus the market's implied 50.0% — a 7.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$200.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 65'** — Over/Under Under 3.5: AI saw 63.0% vs market's 52.4% (10.6pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$200.00 (ROI: +100.0%) - **handicap_sniper_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/0L/1V, +$90.00 (ROI: +45.0%) - **active_trader_v8.1**: 2 trades, 0W/1L/1V, $-410.00 (ROI: -58.6%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 52%–48% in Atletico Madrid's favor. Atletico Madrid had 24 shots (9 on target) versus Real Sociedad's 7 (3 on target). Expected goals: Atletico Madrid 2.35 — Real Sociedad 0.41. Corners: 8-1.
Verdict
A tough session at -10.9% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: oddsflow_core_v8.1 at +$200.00.
A tough session at -10.9% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: Oddsflow Core Strategy at +$200.00.
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