Atletico Madrid1 - 0Girona
Atletico MadridWhy did AI enter 4 times at 0', 15', 21', 47' — and still finish +$1293?
Match Overview
Atletico Madrid hosted Girona in the La Liga, finishing 1-0. Goals: A. Lookman (21'). OddsFlow deployed 20 trades across 4 waves, achieving 100% precision with a net result of +$1292.52 (ROI: +92.2%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from -0.5 to -0.75; the Over/Under stayed at 2.75 with Over odds moving from 1.92 to 1.83; the home moneyline shortened from 1.94 to 1.8.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 2.75. Average expected value was 23.5%, with a combined stake of $10. The sharpest edge was on Under 2.75 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 54.0% probability versus the market's implied 47.8% — a 6.1 percentage point gap at odds of 2.09. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$10.90. ### Wave 2 — Minute 15' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 15'. 3 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 2.5. Average expected value was 17.0%, with a combined stake of $180. The sharpest edge was on Under 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 65.0% probability versus the market's implied 50.0% — a 15.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2. **Result:** All 3 trades won, netting +$180.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 21' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Atletico Madrid leading 1-0 at 21'. A. Lookman scored moments ago. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline and Over/Under markets, targeting Girona -0.5 and Atletico Madrid and Under 3.25 and Girona -1 and Under 3.5. Average expected value was 28.2%, with a combined stake of $565. The sharpest edge was on Girona -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 89.4% probability versus the market's implied 44.4% — a 45.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2.25. **Result:** All 8 trades won, netting +$546.85. ### Wave 4 — Minute 47' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Atletico Madrid leading 1-0 at 47'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Girona -1 and Under 3.5 and Under 3. Average expected value was 55.9%, with a combined stake of $647. The sharpest edge was on Girona -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 93.4% probability versus the market's implied 48.8% — a 44.6 percentage point gap at odds of 2.05. **Result:** All 8 trades won, netting +$554.78.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 22'** — Asian Handicap Girona -1: AI saw 89.4% vs market's 44.4% (45.0pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 47'** — Asian Handicap Girona -1: AI saw 93.4% vs market's 48.8% (44.6pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 47'** — Asian Handicap Girona -1: AI saw 93.2% vs market's 48.8% (44.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 47'** — Over/Under Under 3: AI saw 89.9% vs market's 51.5% (38.3pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 47'** — Over/Under Under 3: AI saw 89.8% vs market's 51.5% (38.2pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_MC_v10**: 7 trades, 7W/0L, +$445.67 (ROI: +88.4%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 7 trades, 7W/0L, +$445.10 (ROI: +88.5%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 5 trades, 5W/0L, +$390.85 (ROI: +101.5%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$10.90 (ROI: +109.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 48–52 in Atletico Madrid's deficit. Atletico Madrid had 16 shots (4 on target) versus Girona's 22 (10 on target). Expected goals: Atletico Madrid 1.75 — Girona 1.94. Corners: 9-7.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +92.2% ROI. Top performer: system4_MC_v10 at +$445.67.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 55.6% / 24.7% / 23.0% |
| Asian handicap | -0.75 | 49.0% |
| Over / Under | 2.75 | 54.6% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly overvalued the Over 2.75 goals.
Atletico Madrid secured a narrow 1-0 victory over Girona. In the 1x2 market, the closing line correctly identified Atletico Madrid as the favorite (55.56% implied probability), which aligned with the outcome. For the Asian Handicap (-0.75), Atletico Madrid covered the spread with their single-goal win, despite the market giving Girona on +0.75 a slightly higher probability to cover (52.91%). The most pronounced market inefficiency emerged in the Totals (Over/Under 2.75). Despite the market leaning towards an Over (54.64% implied probability), the match saw only 1 goal, resulting in a clear 'Under' outcome. This presents a significant EV+ opportunity for bettors who identified the 'Under' value.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +92.2% ROI on 20 trades. Top performer: HDP Sniper at +$445.67.
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