Atletico Madrid4 - 2Espanyol
Atletico Madrid1 trades, 100% precision — how did AI read this match?
Match Overview
Atletico Madrid hosted Espanyol in the La Liga, finishing 4-2. Goals: Jofre (6'), A. Sorloth (21'), G. Simeone (49'), A. Lookman (58'), A. Sorloth (72'), Exposito (80'). OddsFlow deployed 1 trades across 1 wave, achieving 100% precision with a net result of +$180.00 (ROI: +90.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from -1.25 to -1; the Over/Under stayed at 2.5 with Over odds moving from 1.86 to 1.97.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 48' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1, 48'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Atletico Madrid -0.25. Average expected value was 4.4%, with a combined stake of $200. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$180.00.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$180.00 (ROI: +90.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 62%–38% in Atletico Madrid's favor. Atletico Madrid had 17 shots (8 on target) versus Espanyol's 8 (2 on target). Expected goals: Atletico Madrid 3.07 — Espanyol 1.06. Corners: 5-3.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +90.0% ROI.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 64.9% / 24.1% / 14.3% |
| Asian handicap | -1 | 51.8% |
| Over / Under | 2.5 | 50.8% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly underestimated the probability of Over 2.5 goals.
The match between Atletico Madrid and Espanyol concluded 4-2, with Atletico Madrid securing the win. In the 1x2 market, Atletico was the clear favorite (64.94% implied probability) and delivered, showing no significant inefficiency here. For the Asian Handicap (-1), Atletico also covered the spread, winning by two goals, aligning with the market’s slight lean towards them covering (51.81%). However, the most pronounced market inefficiency emerged in the Totals market (Over/Under 2.5 goals). Despite a closing line that subtly favored Under 2.5 goals (Under 51.81% vs Over 50.76%), the match ultimately produced 6 goals, a definitive "Over" outcome. This represents a substantial mispricing by bookmakers, indicating strong Closing Line Value (CLV) for those who backed Over 2.5 goals. OddsFlow AI identifies this as a clear example of market sentiment failing to accurately predict offensive output, creating an EV+ opportunity.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +90.0% ROI on 1 trades.
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