Athletic Club1 - 2Villarreal
Athletic ClubWhy did AI enter 2 times at 25', 39' — and still finish +$2052?
Match Overview
Athletic Club hosted Villarreal in the La Liga, finishing 1-2. Goals: S. Cardona (26'), A. Gonzalez (45'), G. Guruzeta (84'), N. Pepe (89'). OddsFlow deployed 15 trades across 2 waves, achieving 60% precision with a net result of +$2052.17 (ROI: +25.5%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from -0.25 to -0.5; the Over/Under stayed at 2.5 with Over odds moving from 1.83 to 1.93; the home moneyline shortened from 2.37 to 2.07.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Athletic Club and Villarreal 0 and Over 1.5 and Over 2.5 and Athletic Club +0.5 and Athletic Club -0.5. Average expected value was 15.1%, with a combined stake of $7555. The sharpest edge was on Athletic Club +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 83.4% probability versus the market's implied 49.4% — a 34.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2.025. **Result:** 9 of 14 trades won, netting +$2052.17. ### Wave 2 — Minute 39' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Villarreal leading 0-1 at 39'. 1 model (system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Villarreal 0. Average expected value was 13.2%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Villarreal 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 47.3% probability versus the market's implied 36.4% — a 10.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2.75. **Result:** 0 of 1 trades won, netting +$0.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 26'** — Asian Handicap Athletic Club +0.5: AI saw 83.4% vs market's 49.4% (34.0pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 29'** — Asian Handicap Athletic Club +0.5: AI saw 83.4% vs market's 51.3% (32.1pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 26'** — Asian Handicap Athletic Club +0.5: AI saw 78.3% vs market's 49.4% (28.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 39'** — Asian Handicap Villarreal 0: AI saw 47.3% vs market's 36.4% (10.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Villarreal 0: AI saw 50.8% vs market's 40.0% (10.8pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 3 trades, 2W/0L/1V, +$1184.20 (ROI: +62.5%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 6 trades, 4W/2L, +$1002.97 (ROI: +31.7%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 6 trades, 3W/3L, $-135.00 (ROI: -4.5%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 61%–39% in Athletic Club's favor. Athletic Club had 18 shots (6 on target) versus Villarreal's 12 (6 on target). Expected goals: Athletic Club 1.2 — Villarreal 1.29. Corners: 15-3.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +25.5% ROI. Top performer: system4_HYBRID_v10 at +$1184.20.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 48.3% / 28.2% / 26.5% |
| Asian handicap | -0.5 | 48.1% |
| Over / Under | 2.5 | 51.8% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
Outright Winner Mispricing (1x2 Market)
In the La Liga clash between Athletic Club and Villarreal (1-2), the **1x2 market** showed a significant **inefficiency**. Athletic Club was priced as the **market favorite** with an implied win probability of 48.31%, while Villarreal, the eventual winner, had only a 26.46% chance. This represents a clear **missed value signal** for backing Villarreal. The **Asian Handicap** market, with Athletic Club at -0.5, saw Villarreal cover their +0.5 line as they secured the victory; the market had correctly anticipated a higher probability (54.05%) for Villarreal to cover +0.5 than for Athletic Club to cover -0.5. The **Goals Over/Under 2.5 line** saw a total of 3 goals, hitting the Over. The market had a slight lean towards the Over (51.81%), which proved accurate. The primary **market mispricing** was in the outright winner, failing to correctly assess Villarreal's chances.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +25.5% ROI on 15 trades. Top performer: Oddsflow Beta at +$1184.20.
See AI signals as they happen
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