Athletic Club0 - 1Valencia
Athletic ClubWhy did AI enter 6 times at 0', 25', 41', 47', 58', 70' — and still finish +$969?
Match Overview
Athletic Club hosted Valencia in the La Liga, finishing 0-1. Goals: U. Sadiq (72'). OddsFlow deployed 14 trades across 6 waves, achieving 57% precision with a net result of +$969.10 (ROI: +14.9%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from -0.5 to -0.75; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.5 to 2.25.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Valencia. Average expected value was 37.0%, with a combined stake of $210. The sharpest edge was on Valencia (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 25.3% probability versus the market's implied 18.5% — a 6.8 percentage point gap at odds of 5.41. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$926.10. ### Wave 2 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Valencia -0.5 and Over 1.5 and Athletic Club and Athletic Club 0. Average expected value was 9.4%, with a combined stake of $2065. The sharpest edge was on Athletic Club (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 47.2% probability versus the market's implied 34.8% — a 12.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2.875. **Result:** 1 of 4 trades won, netting $-1040.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 41' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 41'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Valencia -0.5 and Over 1.5. Average expected value was 8.9%, with a combined stake of $1200. The sharpest edge was on Over 1.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 57.3% probability versus the market's implied 45.5% — a 11.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2.2. **Result:** 2 of 3 trades won, netting +$147.50. ### Wave 4 — Minute 47' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 47'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Valencia 0. Average expected value was 23.1%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Valencia 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 57.2% probability versus the market's implied 36.4% — a 20.8 percentage point gap at odds of 2.75. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$875.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 58' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 58'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 0.5. Average expected value was 8.0%, with a combined stake of $500. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$266.50. ### Wave 6 — Minute 70' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 70'. Athletic Club made 4 substitutions. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Draw and Athletic Club +0.5 and Under 1.5 and Valencia. Average expected value was 25.7%, with a combined stake of $2044. The sharpest edge was on Athletic Club +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 82.5% probability versus the market's implied 40.0% — a 42.5 percentage point gap at odds of 2.5. **Result:** 2 of 4 trades won, netting $-206.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 71'** — Asian Handicap Athletic Club +0.5: AI saw 82.5% vs market's 40.0% (42.5pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 71'** — Over/Under Under 1.5: AI saw 83.6% vs market's 50.0% (33.6pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 47'** — Asian Handicap Valencia 0: AI saw 57.2% vs market's 36.4% (20.8pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 26'** — Moneyline Athletic Club: AI saw 47.2% vs market's 34.8% (12.4pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Over/Under Over 1.5: AI saw 72.0% vs market's 60.0% (11.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$926.10 (ROI: +441.0%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$185.00 (ROI: +92.5%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 2 trades, 1W/1L, $-37.50 (ROI: -3.7%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 10 trades, 5W/5L, $-104.50 (ROI: -2.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 54–46 in Athletic Club's favor. Athletic Club had 14 shots (4 on target) versus Valencia's 7 (3 on target). Expected goals: Athletic Club 0.99 — Valencia 1.14. Corners: 12-5.
Verdict
A positive result for OddsFlow with +14.9% ROI. The models found genuine edges though not all converted. Top performer: S5.1_Pre at +$926.10.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 58.1% / 26.4% / 18.5% |
| Asian handicap | -0.75 | 51.5% |
| Over / Under | 2.25 | 51.8% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market's misjudgment of Under 2.25 Goals and Valencia's outright win.
The Athletic Club vs Valencia fixture concluded 0-1, marking a significant upset from a betting market perspective. The 1x2 market priced Athletic Club as strong home favorites with an implied win probability of 58.14%. However, Valencia secured an unexpected away victory. On the totals market, the closing line for Over/Under was 2.25 goals, with the market leaning towards the Over (51.81% probability). The actual outcome of just 1 goal clearly indicates a strong Under signal, highlighting a major market inefficiency. The market failed to account for Valencia's defensive solidity and the potential for a low-scoring affair, presenting significant Closing Line Value for those who backed the Under and the Away Win.
A positive result with +14.9% ROI. The models found genuine edges, finishing at +$969.10. Top performer: PreMatch Edge at +$926.10.
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