Athletic Club

2 - 1

Real Betis

Athletic Club hosted Real Betis in the La Liga, finishing 2-1. Goals: D. Vivian (25'), O. Sancet (45'), P. Fornals (75'), C. Bakambu (77'). OddsFlow deployed 21 trades across 2 waves, achieving 33% precision with a net result of $-2549.70 (ROI: -21.0%).

The Asian Handicap held at -0.25 but home odds shifted from 1.9 to 1.85; the Over/Under stayed at 2.5 with Over odds moving from 1.99 to 1.94.

### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Real Betis and Real Betis -1 and Real Betis -0.5 and Draw and Real Betis 0 and Athletic Club and Over 1.5. Average expected value was 26.7%, with a combined stake of $11633. The sharpest edge was on Real Betis -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 97.4% probability versus the market's implied 38.5% — a 59.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2.6. **Result:** 6 of 20 trades won, netting $-2835.20. ### Wave 2 — Minute 36' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Athletic Club leading 1-0 at 36'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 1.5. Average expected value was 9.8%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Over 1.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 70.0% probability versus the market's implied 63.7% — a 6.3 percentage point gap at odds of 1.571. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$285.50.

- **Minute 26'** — Asian Handicap Real Betis -1: AI saw 97.4% vs market's 38.5% (59.0pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Real Betis -1: AI saw 96.1% vs market's 38.5% (57.6pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Real Betis -1: AI saw 95.4% vs market's 38.5% (56.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 26'** — Asian Handicap Real Betis 0: AI saw 84.8% vs market's 37.4% (47.4pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 28'** — Asian Handicap Real Betis 0: AI saw 84.6% vs market's 37.4% (47.2pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.

- **system4_MC_v10**: 7 trades, 3W/4L, $-429.20 (ROI: -10.6%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 7 trades, 2W/3L/2V, $-1048.50 (ROI: -25.6%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 7 trades, 2W/3L/2V, $-1072.00 (ROI: -26.8%)

Possession was 39%–61% in Athletic Club's deficit. Athletic Club had 11 shots (6 on target) versus Real Betis's 11 (3 on target). Expected goals: Athletic Club 1.25 — Real Betis 0.48. Corners: 6-5.