Athletic Club1 - 0Osasuna
Athletic ClubWhy did AI enter 7 times at 15', 25', 32', 44', 47', 56', 71' — and still finish +$5808?
Match Overview
Athletic Club hosted Osasuna in the La Liga, finishing 1-0. Goals: G. Guruzeta (16'). Athletic Club received a red card (M. Jauregizar, 90'). OddsFlow deployed 19 trades across 7 waves, achieving 68% precision with a net result of +$5807.68 (ROI: +54.2%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -0.5 but home odds shifted from 1.87 to 1.88; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.25 to 2.5.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 15' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 15'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Osasuna -0.5. Average expected value was 13.7%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Osasuna -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 64.3% probability versus the market's implied 52.6% — a 11.7 percentage point gap at odds of 1.9. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-200.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 25' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Athletic Club leading 1-0 at 25'. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Over 2.5 and Osasuna -1. Average expected value was 32.8%, with a combined stake of $4471. The sharpest edge was on Osasuna -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 90.3% probability versus the market's implied 42.1% — a 48.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2.375. **Result:** 3 of 6 trades won, netting +$2034.13. ### Wave 3 — Minute 32' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Athletic Club leading 1-0 at 32'. 1 model (system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Athletic Club and Osasuna -0.5. Average expected value was 18.7%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Osasuna -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 74.5% probability versus the market's implied 52.6% — a 21.8 percentage point gap at odds of 1.9. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$904.50. ### Wave 4 — Minute 44' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Athletic Club leading 1-0 at 44'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Osasuna -0.5 and Athletic Club. Average expected value was 20.6%, with a combined stake of $2054. The sharpest edge was on Osasuna -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 76.2% probability versus the market's implied 50.6% — a 25.6 percentage point gap at odds of 1.975. **Result:** All 4 trades won, netting +$1869.05. ### Wave 5 — Minute 47' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Athletic Club leading 1-0 at 47'. 3 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 2.5. Average expected value was 8.5%, with a combined stake of $1500. The sharpest edge was on Under 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 52.0% probability versus the market's implied 45.5% — a 6.6 percentage point gap at odds of 2.2. **Result:** All 3 trades won, netting +$1800.00. ### Wave 6 — Minute 56' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Athletic Club leading 1-0 at 56'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 1.5. Average expected value was 8.0%, with a combined stake of $1000. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-1000.00. ### Wave 7 — Minute 71' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Athletic Club leading 1-0 at 71'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 2.5. Average expected value was 21.1%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Under 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 63.0% probability versus the market's implied 55.6% — a 7.4 percentage point gap at odds of 1.8. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$400.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Osasuna -1: AI saw 90.3% vs market's 42.1% (48.2pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Osasuna -1: AI saw 89.9% vs market's 42.1% (47.8pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Osasuna -1: AI saw 88.9% vs market's 42.1% (46.8pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 44'** — Asian Handicap Osasuna -0.5: AI saw 76.2% vs market's 50.6% (25.6pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 44'** — Asian Handicap Osasuna -0.5: AI saw 75.9% vs market's 51.3% (24.6pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 5 trades, 4W/1L, +$2202.00 (ROI: +73.9%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 6 trades, 4W/2L, +$1704.25 (ROI: +48.2%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 6 trades, 4W/2L, +$1701.43 (ROI: +48.5%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 2 trades, 1W/1L, +$200.00 (ROI: +28.6%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 36%–64% in Athletic Club's deficit. Athletic Club had 7 shots (3 on target) versus Osasuna's 7 (3 on target). Expected goals: Athletic Club 0.56 — Osasuna 1.12. Corners: 5-4.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +54.2% ROI. Top performer: system4_HYBRID_v10 at +$2202.00.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 53.8% / 28.3% / 21.0% |
| Asian handicap | -0.5 | 53.2% |
| Over / Under | 2.5 | 49.8% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market accurately predicted the low-scoring nature of the match, particularly in the Under 2.5 goals market.
The match between Athletic Club and Osasuna concluded 1-0, aligning with the market's expectation of a home win and a low-scoring affair. The 1x2 market priced Athletic Club's win at an implied probability of 53.76%, which proved correct. On the Asian Handicap, Athletic Club -0.5 was also accurately priced at 53.19% to cover. Crucially, the Totals market, with a line of 2.5 goals, showed a significant lean towards the Under at 52.63% implied probability. The final score of 1 goal strongly validated this prediction, indicating robust market efficiency in assessing the match's scoring potential.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +54.2% ROI on 19 trades. Top performer: Oddsflow Beta at +$2202.00.
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