Athletic Club2 - 1Elche
Athletic Club1 trades, 100% precision — how did AI read this match?
Match Overview
Athletic Club hosted Elche in the La Liga, finishing 2-1. Goals: G. Guruzeta (64'), Andre Silva (68' pen), G. Guruzeta (89' pen). OddsFlow deployed 1 trades across 1 wave, achieving 100% precision with a net result of +$618.01 (ROI: +115.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -0.75 but home odds shifted from 1.87 to 1.95; the Over/Under stayed at 2.5 with Over odds moving from 2.01 to 1.88.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 59' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 59'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Athletic Club. Average expected value was 4.9%, with a combined stake of $537. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$618.01.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$618.01 (ROI: +115.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 46%–54% in Athletic Club's deficit. Athletic Club had 18 shots (8 on target) versus Elche's 2 (2 on target). Expected goals: Athletic Club 3.19 — Elche 0.82. Corners: 4-1.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +115.0% ROI.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 57.8% / 26.1% / 19.5% |
| Asian handicap | -0.75 | 51.3% |
| Over / Under | 2.5 | 53.2% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The tight pricing on the Over/Under 2.5 goals, despite the 'Over' hitting, indicated fine margins and potential for subtle value.
Athletic Club secured a 2-1 home victory against Elche in La Liga. The 1x2 market correctly priced Athletic Club as the favorite with an implied win probability of 57.8%, a forecast that aligned with the final outcome. On the Asian Handicap market, Athletic Club (-0.75) registered a half-win, a scenario the market anticipated with a 51.28% probability for them to cover. The Over/Under 2.5 goals market saw a slight lean towards the Over (53.19% probability), and the match ultimately delivered 3 goals. While the market displayed strong overall efficiency in predicting the favored outcomes, the tight scoreline of 2-1, hitting the Over 2.5 line exactly, highlights the **fine margins** in the Totals market, suggesting potential for **subtle value signals** for sharp bettors focusing on precise goal expectations.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +115.0% ROI on 1 trades.
See AI signals as they happen
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