Alaves1 - 1Villarreal
AlavesWhy did AI enter 3 times at 25', 47', 52' — and still finish +$1752?
Match Overview
Alaves hosted Villarreal in the La Liga, finishing 1-1. Goals: R. Marin (40' OG), R. Marin (41' OG), N. Pepe (90'). OddsFlow deployed 10 trades across 3 waves, achieving 70% precision with a net result of +$1752.40 (ROI: +28.5%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap remained steady at 0.25.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Alaves +0.5 and Alaves. Average expected value was 15.0%, with a combined stake of $2531. The sharpest edge was on Alaves +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 76.8% probability versus the market's implied 58.8% — a 18.0 percentage point gap at odds of 1.7. **Result:** 2 of 4 trades won, netting +$71.70. ### Wave 2 — Minute 47' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Alaves leading 1-0 at 47'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Villarreal -0.5. Average expected value was 28.1%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Villarreal -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 73.0% probability versus the market's implied 46.5% — a 26.5 percentage point gap at odds of 2.15. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$1150.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 52' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Alaves leading 1-0 at 52'. 2 models (system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline and Over/Under markets, targeting Villarreal -0.5 and Alaves and Over 1.5. Average expected value was 21.3%, with a combined stake of $2609. The sharpest edge was on Villarreal -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 74.3% probability versus the market's implied 45.5% — a 28.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2.2. **Result:** 3 of 4 trades won, netting +$530.70.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 52'** — Asian Handicap Villarreal -0.5: AI saw 74.3% vs market's 45.5% (28.9pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 47'** — Asian Handicap Villarreal -0.5: AI saw 73.0% vs market's 46.5% (26.5pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 47'** — Asian Handicap Villarreal -0.5: AI saw 70.7% vs market's 46.5% (24.2pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Alaves +0.5: AI saw 76.8% vs market's 58.8% (18.0pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Alaves +0.5: AI saw 76.6% vs market's 58.8% (17.8pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 4 trades, 3W/1L, +$977.50 (ROI: +43.1%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 3 trades, 2W/1L, +$607.70 (ROI: +34.5%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 3 trades, 2W/1L, +$167.20 (ROI: +7.9%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 48%–52% in Alaves's deficit. Alaves had 8 shots (0 on target) versus Villarreal's 10 (4 on target). Expected goals: Alaves 0.21 — Villarreal 0.48. Corners: 5-2.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +28.5% ROI. Top performer: system4_BLEND_v10 at +$977.50.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +28.5% ROI on 10 trades. Top performer: Active Trader at +$977.50.
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