Alaves1 - 2Rayo Vallecano
AlavesWhy did AI enter 6 times at 0', 15', 19', 49', 64', 75' — and still finish $-105?
Match Overview
Alaves hosted Rayo Vallecano in the La Liga, finishing 1-2. Goals: T. Martinez (13'), S. Camello (73'), R. Nteka (90'). OddsFlow deployed 14 trades across 6 waves, achieving 36% precision with a net result of $-105.10 (ROI: -9.3%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -0.25 but home odds shifted from 1.88 to 2.05; the Over/Under stayed at 2.5 with Over odds moving from 1.96 to 2.03; the home moneyline drifted out from 2.17 to 2.37.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Rayo Vallecano -0.25. Average expected value was 13.0%, with a combined stake of $10. The sharpest edge was on Rayo Vallecano -0.25 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 60.1% probability versus the market's implied 53.2% — a 6.9 percentage point gap at odds of 1.88. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$8.80. ### Wave 2 — Minute 15' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Alaves leading 1-0 at 15'. T. Martinez scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Rayo Vallecano -1. Average expected value was 42.1%, with a combined stake of $230. The sharpest edge was on Rayo Vallecano -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 86.8% probability versus the market's implied 47.6% — a 39.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2.1. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$253.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 19' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Alaves leading 1-0 at 19'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Rayo Vallecano -1. Average expected value was 40.2%, with a combined stake of $115. The sharpest edge was on Rayo Vallecano -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 87.0% probability versus the market's implied 48.8% — a 38.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2.05. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$120.75. ### Wave 4 — Minute 49' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Alaves leading 1-0 at 49'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 2.5 and Under 2.25. Average expected value was 17.5%, with a combined stake of $196. The sharpest edge was on Under 2.25 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 63.8% probability versus the market's implied 47.2% — a 16.7 percentage point gap at odds of 2.12. **Result:** All 3 trades lost, netting $-196.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 64' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Alaves leading 1-0 at 64'. 1 model (system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Rayo Vallecano -1 and Under 2.5 and Under 1.75. Average expected value was 44.1%, with a combined stake of $400. The sharpest edge was on Rayo Vallecano -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 96.0% probability versus the market's implied 50.6% — a 45.4 percentage point gap at odds of 1.975. **Result:** 1 of 4 trades won, netting $-111.65. ### Wave 6 — Minute 75' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after S. Camello's equalizer at 73'. 3 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 25.3%, with a combined stake of $180. The sharpest edge was on Draw (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 60.6% probability versus the market's implied 23.1% — a 37.5 percentage point gap at odds of 4.333. **Result:** All 3 trades lost, netting $-180.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 64'** — Asian Handicap Rayo Vallecano -1: AI saw 96.0% vs market's 50.6% (45.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 15'** — Asian Handicap Rayo Vallecano -1: AI saw 86.8% vs market's 47.6% (39.2pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 15'** — Asian Handicap Rayo Vallecano -1: AI saw 86.8% vs market's 47.6% (39.2pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 19'** — Asian Handicap Rayo Vallecano -1: AI saw 87.0% vs market's 48.8% (38.2pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 75'** — Moneyline Draw: AI saw 60.6% vs market's 23.1% (37.5pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$120.75 (ROI: +105.0%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$8.80 (ROI: +88.0%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 3 trades, 1W/2L, +$6.50 (ROI: +2.8%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 4 trades, 1W/3L, $-69.50 (ROI: -22.3%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 5 trades, 1W/4L, $-171.65 (ROI: -37.3%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 46–54 in Alaves's deficit. Alaves had 19 shots (11 on target) versus Rayo Vallecano's 13 (6 on target). Expected goals: Alaves 1.69 — Rayo Vallecano 1.11. Corners: 9-5.
Verdict
A marginally negative session at -9.3% ROI. The edge identification was sound but variance went against the positions. Top performer: oddsflow_core_v8.1 at +$120.75.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 0.4% / 0.3% / 0.3% |
| Asian handicap | -0.25 | 0.5% |
| Over / Under | 2.5 | 0.5% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market severely mispriced the Over 2.5 goals line.
The match between Alaves and Rayo Vallecano concluded with a 1-2 victory for the away side. In the 1x2 market, despite Alaves being the slight market favorite at 42.19% implied probability, Rayo Vallecano secured the win, demonstrating a strong EV+ outcome for those backing the underdog at 31.65%. The Asian Handicap of Alaves -0.25 saw Rayo Vallecano +0.25 cover comfortably with their 2-1 win, aligning with the market's expectation of 53.19% probability for them to cover. However, the most notable market inefficiency emerged in the Goals Over/Under market. With a closing line of 2.5, the market leaned significantly towards the Under at 53.19% implied probability. The actual outcome of 3 goals (1-2) resulted in the Over 2.5 goals hitting, directly opposing the prevailing market sentiment. This represents a clear Value Signal identified by OddsFlow, indicating that the bookmakers severely mispriced the likelihood of a higher-scoring game.
A marginally negative session at -9.3% ROI. The edge identification was sound but variance went against the positions. Top performer: Oddsflow Core Strategy at +$120.75.
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