Alaves2 - 2Osasuna
AlavesWhy did AI enter 7 times at 25', 28', 33', 44', 47', 71', 84' — and still finish +$5704?
Match Overview
Alaves hosted Osasuna in the La Liga, finishing 2-2. Goals: V. Rosier (4'), T. Martinez (44'), A. Budimir (80' pen), A. Budimir (81' pen), L. Boye (90' pen). Osasuna received a red card (A. Osambela, 90'). OddsFlow deployed 25 trades across 7 waves, achieving 60% precision with a net result of +$5703.50 (ROI: +39.6%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from 0 to -0.25; the Over/Under line shifted from 2 to 2.25; the home moneyline shortened from 2.69 to 2.54.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Osasuna leading 0-1 at 25'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Osasuna and Alaves +0.5. Average expected value was 19.5%, with a combined stake of $4478. The sharpest edge was on Alaves +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 63.6% probability versus the market's implied 41.2% — a 22.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2.425. **Result:** 3 of 7 trades won, netting $-840.50. ### Wave 2 — Minute 28' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Osasuna leading 0-1 at 28'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Over 2.5 and Osasuna 0. Average expected value was 17.9%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Osasuna 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 71.8% probability versus the market's implied 51.3% — a 20.5 percentage point gap at odds of 1.95. **Result:** 1 of 2 trades won, netting +$150.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 33' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Osasuna leading 0-1 at 33'. 2 models (system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline and Over/Under markets, targeting Alaves +0.5 and Osasuna and Osasuna 0 and Over 2.5. Average expected value was 19.9%, with a combined stake of $4306. The sharpest edge was on Alaves +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 64.7% probability versus the market's implied 42.6% — a 22.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2.35. **Result:** 3 of 7 trades won, netting $-806.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 44' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after T. Martinez's equalizer at 44'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Over 2.5 and Draw. Average expected value was 14.5%, with a combined stake of $2500. The sharpest edge was on Over 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 70.0% probability versus the market's implied 47.6% — a 22.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2.1. **Result:** All 5 trades won, netting +$5000.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 47' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after T. Martinez's equalizer at 44'. 1 model (system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 15.5%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Draw (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 42.2% probability versus the market's implied 25.0% — a 17.2 percentage point gap at odds of 4. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$1500.00. ### Wave 6 — Minute 71' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1, 71'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Osasuna 0. Average expected value was 32.7%, with a combined stake of $614. The sharpest edge was on Osasuna 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 80.8% probability versus the market's implied 50.0% — a 30.8 percentage point gap at odds of 2. **Result:** 0 of 1 trades won, netting +$0.00. ### Wave 7 — Minute 84' (Score: 1-2) **Context:** Osasuna leading 1-2 at 84'. A. Budimir scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Alaves +1. Average expected value was 24.6%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Alaves +1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 81.8% probability versus the market's implied 58.8% — a 23.0 percentage point gap at odds of 1.7. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$700.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 71'** — Asian Handicap Osasuna 0: AI saw 80.8% vs market's 50.0% (30.8pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 84'** — Asian Handicap Alaves +1: AI saw 81.8% vs market's 58.8% (23.0pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Alaves +0.5: AI saw 63.6% vs market's 41.2% (22.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 44'** — Over/Under Over 2.5: AI saw 70.0% vs market's 47.6% (22.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 44'** — Over/Under Over 2.5: AI saw 70.0% vs market's 47.6% (22.4pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 10 trades, 7W/3L, +$3707.00 (ROI: +70.4%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 7 trades, 4W/3L, +$1194.00 (ROI: +27.7%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 8 trades, 4W/3L/1V, +$802.50 (ROI: +16.6%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 48%–52% in Alaves's deficit. Alaves had 17 shots (6 on target) versus Osasuna's 8 (5 on target). Expected goals: Alaves 2.02 — Osasuna 1.3. Corners: 7-1.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +39.6% ROI. Top performer: system4_BLEND_v10 at +$3707.00.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 39.4% / 31.9% / 32.0% |
| Asian handicap | -0.25 | 56.2% |
| Over / Under | 2.25 | 49.0% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly mispriced the Over/Under 2.25 goals line, underestimating the likelihood of a high-scoring draw.
The La Liga fixture between Alaves and Osasuna concluded in a 2-2 draw, resulting in a total of 4 goals. The **1x2 market** showed the draw with an implied probability of 31.85%, slightly underestimated given the outcome. On the **Asian Handicap** market, Alaves was set at -0.25. The market correctly assigned Osasuna (+0.25) a higher probability of covering (56.18%), which they did with the draw. However, the most significant **market inefficiency** was observed in the **Totals (Over/Under) market**. Despite the closing line set at 2.25 goals, with the market leaning heavily towards the **Under** (54.05% probability), the match produced 4 goals, a clear **Over**. This represents a strong **Value Signal** for Over 2.25 bettors, indicating a mispricing by bookmakers on goal expectations.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +39.6% ROI on 25 trades. Top performer: Active Trader at +$3707.00.
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