Alaves2 - 2Girona
AlavesWhat went wrong? 1 trades, $-200 — the AI's post-mortem.
Match Overview
Alaves hosted Girona in the La Liga, finishing 2-2. Goals: L. Boye (5'), V. Vanat (31'), V. Tsygankov (73'), L. Boye (89'). OddsFlow deployed 1 trades across 1 wave, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-200.00 (ROI: -100.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -0.25 but home odds shifted from 2.08 to 2.13; the Over/Under line shifted from 2 to 2.25.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 16' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Alaves leading 1-0 at 16'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Alaves -0.25. Average expected value was 5.9%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Alaves -0.25 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 53.6% probability versus the market's implied 47.6% — a 5.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2.1. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-200.00.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-200.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 45%–55% in Alaves's deficit. Alaves had 17 shots (6 on target) versus Girona's 10 (5 on target). Expected goals: Alaves 1.87 — Girona 2.22. Corners: 7-6.
Verdict
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 39.7% / 33.1% / 30.0% |
| Asian handicap | -0.25 | 47.0% |
| Over / Under | 2.25 | 48.3% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
Significant mispricing in the Over/Under 2.25 market.
The La Liga clash between Alaves and Girona concluded in a 2-2 draw, leading to a total of 4 goals. Analyzing the pre-match closing lines, the 1x2 market saw Alaves as a slight favorite with a 39.68% win probability, compared to a 33.11% chance for a draw. The actual draw outcome presented some value against the implied odds. In the Handicap Asian market, Alaves was given a -0.25 line, with the market leaning towards Girona to cover their +0.25 at 54.95% probability. The draw meant Girona successfully covered this line. However, the most significant market inefficiency was observed in the Goals Over/Under market. Despite the closing line set at 2.25 goals, with the market heavily favoring the Under (54.05% probability), the match exploded with 4 goals. This outcome represents a substantial misjudgment by the market, presenting significant EV+ for bettors who backed the Over 2.25.
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions.
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