Alaves1 - 0Barcelona
AlavesWhat went wrong? 2 trades, $-928 — the AI's post-mortem.
Match Overview
Alaves hosted Barcelona in the La Liga, finishing 1-0. Goals: I. Diabate (45'). OddsFlow deployed 2 trades across 1 wave, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-928.00 (ROI: -100.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from 0.75 to 0.25; the Over/Under line shifted from 3.25 to 2.75; the home moneyline shortened from 4.35 to 3.22.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Barcelona. Average expected value was 39.5%, with a combined stake of $928. The sharpest edge was on Barcelona (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 64.7% probability versus the market's implied 45.7% — a 19.1 percentage point gap at odds of 2.19. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-928.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 0'** — Moneyline Barcelona: AI saw 64.7% vs market's 45.7% (19.1pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 0'** — Moneyline Barcelona: AI saw 64.7% vs market's 47.2% (17.6pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **S5.1_Pre**: 2 trades, 0W/2L, $-928.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 23–77 in Alaves's deficit. Alaves had 9 shots (3 on target) versus Barcelona's 8 (0 on target). Expected goals: Alaves 0.66 — Barcelona 0.59. Corners: 6-4.
Verdict
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 31.1% / 26.2% / 45.7% |
| Asian handicap | +0.25 | 51.8% |
| Over / Under | 2.75 | 54.4% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly misjudged the goal total, overestimating the likelihood of an Over 2.75 outcome.
Alaves secured a 1-0 victory over Barcelona in La Liga. The 1x2 market heavily favored Barcelona with an implied win probability of 45.66%, while Alaves was priced at 31.06%. The home win thus represented significant Closing Line Value (CLV). In the Asian Handicap market, Alaves closed at +0.25. Their 1-0 win meant they comfortably covered the spread, despite the market slightly leaning towards Barcelona covering -0.25 (51.81% probability). The most pronounced market inefficiency was observed in the Totals (Over/Under) market. The Over 2.75 line carried a 54.35% implied probability. However, with only one goal scored, the match decisively landed on the Under, signaling a strong value signal against the market's high-scoring expectation.
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions.
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