Alaves2 - 4Athletic Club
AlavesWhy did AI enter 3 times at 25', 48', 54' — and still finish +$647?
Match Overview
Alaves hosted Athletic Club in the La Liga, finishing 2-4. Goals: A. Blanco (8'), A. Blanco (9'), R. Navarro (46'), R. Navarro (47'), N. Tenaglia (68'), O. Sancet (74'), N. Williams (83'), N. Williams (87'). OddsFlow deployed 13 trades across 3 waves, achieving 54% precision with a net result of +$646.58 (ROI: +9.4%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at 0 but home odds shifted from 1.92 to 2.08; the home moneyline drifted out from 2.63 to 2.92.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Alaves leading 1-0 at 25'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under and Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Over 2.5 and Athletic Club -0.5 and Alaves. Average expected value was 17.3%, with a combined stake of $3364. The sharpest edge was on Athletic Club -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 74.7% probability versus the market's implied 46.5% — a 28.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2.15. **Result:** 4 of 6 trades won, netting +$1196.58. ### Wave 2 — Minute 48' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Alaves leading 1-0 at 48'. R. Navarro scored moments ago. Athletic Club made 3 substitutions. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Under 2.5 and Draw. Average expected value was 8.9%, with a combined stake of $2000. The sharpest edge was on Draw (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 40.9% probability versus the market's implied 27.8% — a 13.1 percentage point gap at odds of 3.6. **Result:** All 4 trades lost, netting $-2000.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 54' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after R. Navarro's equalizer at 47'. 3 models (oddsflow_core_v8.1, system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Over 2.5 and Athletic Club 0. Average expected value was 19.5%, with a combined stake of $1500. The sharpest edge was on Over 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 60.0% probability versus the market's implied 40.0% — a 20.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2.5. **Result:** All 3 trades won, netting +$1450.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Athletic Club -0.5: AI saw 74.7% vs market's 46.5% (28.2pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Athletic Club -0.5: AI saw 74.8% vs market's 47.6% (27.2pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 54'** — Over/Under Over 2.5: AI saw 60.0% vs market's 40.0% (20.0pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 48'** — Moneyline Draw: AI saw 40.9% vs market's 27.8% (13.1pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 54'** — Asian Handicap Athletic Club 0: AI saw 71.8% vs market's 58.8% (12.9pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$750.00 (ROI: +150.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 6 trades, 3W/3L, $-43.05 (ROI: -1.4%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 6 trades, 3W/3L, $-60.37 (ROI: -1.9%)
Match Statistics
Alaves had 7 shots (4 on target) versus Athletic Club's 1 (0 on target). Expected goals: Alaves 0.49 — Athletic Club 0.01.
Verdict
A positive result for OddsFlow with +9.4% ROI. The models found genuine edges though not all converted. Top performer: oddsflow_core_v8.1 at +$750.00.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 34.3% / 30.0% / 38.3% |
| Asian handicap | 0 | 54.0% |
| Over / Under | 2.5 | 48.3% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly underestimated the likelihood of Over 2.5 goals.
Athletic Club secured a dominant 4-2 away victory against Alaves. In the 1x2 market, the closing lines correctly identified Athletic Club as the slight favorite (38.31% implied win probability), aligning with the actual outcome. The Asian Handicap (0 line) also saw Athletic Club favored to cover (54.05%), which they comfortably did with a two-goal margin. However, the most striking inefficiency was in the Goals Over/Under market. Despite a closing line of 2.5, the market leaned heavily towards the Under (54.05%), predicting a low-scoring affair. The match concluded with 6 total goals, leading to a significant EV+ signal for those who backed the Over. This highlights a clear divergence between market sentiment and the actual high-scoring reality.
A positive result with +9.4% ROI. The models found genuine edges, finishing at +$646.58. Top performer: Oddsflow Core Strategy at +$750.00.
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