Pohang Steelers0 - 2Jeonbuk Motors
Pohang SteelersWhy did AI enter 3 times at 26', 35', 43' — and still finish $-569?
Match Overview
Pohang Steelers hosted Jeonbuk Motors in the K League 1, finishing 0-2. Goals: G. Paulauskas (43'), Kim Young-Bin (90'), Kim Young-Bin (90'). OddsFlow deployed 17 trades across 3 waves, achieving 29% precision with a net result of $-569.37 (ROI: -10.6%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from 0.25 to 0; the Over/Under stayed at 2.5 with Over odds moving from 2.35 to 2.25; the home moneyline shortened from 3.1 to 2.9.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 26' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 26'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Jeonbuk Motors +0.5. Average expected value was 10.1%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Jeonbuk Motors +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 50.2% probability versus the market's implied 42.6% — a 7.6 percentage point gap at odds of 2.35. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$270.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 35' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 35'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline and Over/Under and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Draw and Under 1.5 and Jeonbuk Motors 0. Average expected value was 24.3%, with a combined stake of $4178. The sharpest edge was on Jeonbuk Motors 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 84.5% probability versus the market's implied 58.8% — a 25.7 percentage point gap at odds of 1.7. **Result:** 2 of 14 trades won, netting $-1510.70. ### Wave 3 — Minute 43' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Jeonbuk Motors leading 0-1 at 43'. G. Paulauskas scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 2.5. Average expected value was 22.2%, with a combined stake of $1008. The sharpest edge was on Under 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 78.3% probability versus the market's implied 60.0% — a 18.3 percentage point gap at odds of 1.666. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$671.33.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 37'** — Asian Handicap Jeonbuk Motors 0: AI saw 84.5% vs market's 58.8% (25.7pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 37'** — Asian Handicap Jeonbuk Motors 0: AI saw 84.5% vs market's 58.8% (25.7pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 35'** — Over/Under Under 1.5: AI saw 70.1% vs market's 49.5% (20.6pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 35'** — Over/Under Under 1.5: AI saw 69.9% vs market's 49.5% (20.4pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 35'** — Over/Under Under 1.5: AI saw 70.1% vs market's 49.8% (20.4pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$270.00 (ROI: +135.0%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 8 trades, 2W/6L, $-414.17 (ROI: -16.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 8 trades, 2W/6L, $-425.20 (ROI: -16.4%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 62–38 in Pohang Steelers's favor. Pohang Steelers had 6 shots (1 on target) versus Jeonbuk Motors's 9 (3 on target). Corners: 7-1.
Verdict
A tough session at -10.6% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: oddsflow_core_v8.1 at +$270.00.
A tough session at -10.6% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: Oddsflow Core Strategy at +$270.00.
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