Jeju United FC2 - 1Pohang Steelers
Jeju United FCWhat went wrong? 3 trades, $-350 — the AI's post-mortem.
Match Overview
Jeju United FC hosted Pohang Steelers in the K League 1, finishing 2-1. Goals: J. Tranziska (38'), Kim Shin-Jin (78'), Italo (82'). Jeju United FC received a red card (T. Figueiredo, 85'). OddsFlow deployed 3 trades across 1 wave, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-350.00 (ROI: -100.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from 0 to 0.25; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.5 to 1.5; the home moneyline drifted out from 2.88 to 3.1.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 10' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 10'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Pohang Steelers 0. Average expected value was 33.9%, with a combined stake of $350. The sharpest edge was on Pohang Steelers 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 77.2% probability versus the market's implied 55.6% — a 21.6 percentage point gap at odds of 1.8. **Result:** All 3 trades lost, netting $-350.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 10'** — Asian Handicap Pohang Steelers 0: AI saw 77.2% vs market's 55.6% (21.6pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 10'** — Asian Handicap Pohang Steelers 0: AI saw 77.2% vs market's 55.6% (21.6pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 10'** — Asian Handicap Pohang Steelers 0: AI saw 77.2% vs market's 55.9% (21.3pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 3 trades, 0W/3L, $-350.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Verdict
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample.
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions.
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