Incheon United1 - 0Jeonbuk Motors
Incheon UnitedWhat went wrong? 3 trades, $-344 — the AI's post-mortem.
Match Overview
Incheon United hosted Jeonbuk Motors in the K League 1, finishing 1-0. Goals: Gerso (44'), Gerso (45'). OddsFlow deployed 3 trades across 1 wave, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-344.00 (ROI: -100.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at 0.25 but home odds shifted from 1.8 to 1.85; the home moneyline drifted out from 3.1 to 3.2.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 10' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 10'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Jeonbuk Motors 0. Average expected value was 24.2%, with a combined stake of $344. The sharpest edge was on Jeonbuk Motors 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 68.2% probability versus the market's implied 52.6% — a 15.6 percentage point gap at odds of 1.9. **Result:** All 3 trades lost, netting $-344.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 10'** — Asian Handicap Jeonbuk Motors 0: AI saw 68.2% vs market's 52.6% (15.6pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 10'** — Asian Handicap Jeonbuk Motors 0: AI saw 68.2% vs market's 53.5% (14.7pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 10'** — Asian Handicap Jeonbuk Motors 0: AI saw 68.2% vs market's 55.6% (12.6pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 3 trades, 0W/3L, $-344.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Verdict
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample.
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions.
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