Incheon United4 - 0Gwangju FC
Incheon UnitedWhy did AI enter 2 times at 0', 10' — and still finish $-360?
Match Overview
Incheon United hosted Gwangju FC in the K League 1, finishing 4-0. Goals: Ibiza (19'), M. Ferrier (26'), Gerso (55'), Lee Chung-Yong (65' pen). OddsFlow deployed 4 trades across 2 waves, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-360.00 (ROI: -100.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -1 but home odds shifted from 1.92 to 1.93; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.25 to 2.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 2.25. Average expected value was 17.1%, with a combined stake of $10. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-10.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 10' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 10'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Gwangju FC -1. Average expected value was 30.1%, with a combined stake of $350. The sharpest edge was on Gwangju FC -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 71.0% probability versus the market's implied 51.9% — a 19.1 percentage point gap at odds of 1.925. **Result:** All 3 trades lost, netting $-350.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 10'** — Asian Handicap Gwangju FC -1: AI saw 71.0% vs market's 51.9% (19.1pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 10'** — Asian Handicap Gwangju FC -1: AI saw 71.0% vs market's 52.9% (18.1pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 10'** — Asian Handicap Gwangju FC -1: AI saw 71.0% vs market's 52.9% (18.1pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-10.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 3 trades, 0W/3L, $-350.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Verdict
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: S5.1_Pre at $-10.00.
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: PreMatch Edge at $-10.00.
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