Gwangju FC1 - 1Ulsan Hyundai FC
Gwangju FCWhat went wrong? 3 trades, $-350 — the AI's post-mortem.
Match Overview
Gwangju FC hosted Ulsan Hyundai FC in the K League 1, finishing 1-1. Goals: Yago Cariello (54'), Moon Min-seo (64'). OddsFlow deployed 3 trades across 1 wave, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-350.00 (ROI: -100.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at 1 but home odds shifted from 2.02 to 2.05; the home moneyline drifted out from 6.25 to 6.5.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 10' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 10'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Ulsan Hyundai FC +1. Average expected value was 37.8%, with a combined stake of $350. The sharpest edge was on Ulsan Hyundai FC +1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 74.3% probability versus the market's implied 50.5% — a 23.8 percentage point gap at odds of 1.98. **Result:** All 3 trades lost, netting $-350.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 10'** — Asian Handicap Ulsan Hyundai FC +1: AI saw 74.3% vs market's 50.5% (23.8pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 10'** — Asian Handicap Ulsan Hyundai FC +1: AI saw 74.3% vs market's 52.1% (22.2pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 10'** — Asian Handicap Ulsan Hyundai FC +1: AI saw 74.3% vs market's 53.3% (20.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 3 trades, 0W/3L, $-350.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Verdict
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample.
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions.
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