Gimcheon Sangmu FC

3 - 2

Daejeon Citizen

Gimcheon Sangmu FC hosted Daejeon Citizen in the K League 1, finishing 3-2. Goals: Cho Sung-gwon (13'), Lee Kun-hee (34'), Hong Yun-sang (42'), Hong Yun-Sang (43'), Masatoshi Ishida (87'), Kim Yi-seok (90'). OddsFlow deployed 24 trades across 4 waves, achieving 25% precision with a net result of $-5059.06 (ROI: -73.8%).

The Asian Handicap line moved from 0 to 0.25; the Over/Under stayed at 2.5 with Over odds moving from 2 to 1.95; the home moneyline drifted out from 2.8 to 2.9.

### Wave 1 — Minute 26' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Daejeon Citizen leading 0-1 at 26'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Daejeon Citizen 0. Average expected value was 31.0%, with a combined stake of $250. The sharpest edge was on Daejeon Citizen 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 71.7% probability versus the market's implied 51.0% — a 20.6 percentage point gap at odds of 1.96. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-250.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 35' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after Lee Kun-hee's equalizer at 34'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline and Over/Under markets, targeting Daejeon Citizen 0 and Draw and Under 3.75 and Under 3.5. Average expected value was 29.4%, with a combined stake of $4392. The sharpest edge was on Under 3.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 73.5% probability versus the market's implied 47.6% — a 25.8 percentage point gap at odds of 2.1. **Result:** All 14 trades lost, netting $-4392.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 44' (Score: 2-1) **Context:** Gimcheon Sangmu FC leading 2-1 at 44'. Hong Yun-Sang scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Gimcheon Sangmu FC. Average expected value was 9.4%, with a combined stake of $1138. The sharpest edge was on Gimcheon Sangmu FC (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 67.4% probability versus the market's implied 61.0% — a 6.4 percentage point gap at odds of 1.64. **Result:** All 6 trades won, netting +$658.94. ### Wave 4 — Minute 47' (Score: 2-1) **Context:** Gimcheon Sangmu FC leading 2-1 at 47'. Hong Yun-Sang scored moments ago. Daejeon Citizen made 8 substitutions. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 4.5. Average expected value was 26.1%, with a combined stake of $1076. The sharpest edge was on Under 4.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 80.0% probability versus the market's implied 57.9% — a 22.1 percentage point gap at odds of 1.727. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-1076.00.

- **Minute 36'** — Over/Under Under 3.5: AI saw 73.5% vs market's 47.6% (25.8pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 35'** — Over/Under Under 3.5: AI saw 72.5% vs market's 47.6% (24.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 35'** — Over/Under Under 3.75: AI saw 72.5% vs market's 50.0% (22.5pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 47'** — Over/Under Under 4.5: AI saw 80.0% vs market's 57.9% (22.1pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 47'** — Over/Under Under 4.5: AI saw 79.5% vs market's 57.9% (21.6pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.

- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 2 trades, 0W/2L, $-250.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 11 trades, 3W/8L, $-2376.05 (ROI: -72.7%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 11 trades, 3W/8L, $-2433.01 (ROI: -72.9%)

Possession was 45–55 in Gimcheon Sangmu FC's deficit. Gimcheon Sangmu FC had 13 shots (5 on target) versus Daejeon Citizen's 11 (3 on target). Corners: 3-6.