Daejeon Citizen1 - 2FC Seoul
Daejeon CitizenWhy did AI enter 2 times at 0', 25' — and still finish $-10?
Match Overview
Daejeon Citizen hosted FC Seoul in the K League 1, finishing 1-2. Goals: Anderson Oliveira (24'), Jeong Jae-Hee (70'), Jeong Jae-Hee (71'), Lee Seung-Mo (88'). OddsFlow deployed 4 trades across 2 waves, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-10.00 (ROI: -2.8%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at 0 but home odds shifted from 1.99 to 2.07; the Over/Under stayed at 2.25 with Over odds moving from 1.81 to 1.91; the home moneyline drifted out from 2.79 to 2.92.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 2.25. Average expected value was 43.4%, with a combined stake of $10. The sharpest edge was on Under 2.25 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 65.9% probability versus the market's implied 50.5% — a 15.4 percentage point gap at odds of 1.98. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-10.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** FC Seoul leading 0-1 at 25'. Anderson Oliveira scored moments ago. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting FC Seoul 0. Average expected value was 31.1%, with a combined stake of $350. The sharpest edge was on FC Seoul 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 74.2% probability versus the market's implied 53.8% — a 20.4 percentage point gap at odds of 1.86. **Result:** 0 of 3 trades won, netting +$0.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap FC Seoul 0: AI saw 74.2% vs market's 53.8% (20.4pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap FC Seoul 0: AI saw 74.2% vs market's 54.9% (19.2pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap FC Seoul 0: AI saw 74.2% vs market's 54.9% (19.2pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 0'** — Over/Under Under 2.25: AI saw 65.9% vs market's 50.5% (15.4pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 3 trades, 0W/0L/3V, +$0.00 (ROI: +0.0%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-10.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Verdict
A marginally negative session at -2.8% ROI. The edge identification was sound but variance went against the positions. Top performer: oddsflow_core_v8.1 at +$0.00.
A marginally negative session at -2.8% ROI. The edge identification was sound but variance went against the positions. Top performer: Oddsflow Core Strategy at +$0.00.
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