Yokohama F. Marinos

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Kashima

Yokohama F. Marinos hosted Kashima in the J1 League, finishing 1-1. Goals: K. Tanimura (58'), Leo Ceara (90'), Y. Suzuki (120' pen), T. Inoue (120' pen), K. Watanabe (120' pen), T. Kida (120' pen), D. David (120' pen), A. Cavric (120' pen), N. Ueda (120' pen), Leo Ceara (120' pen). OddsFlow deployed 14 trades across 3 waves, achieving 43% precision with a net result of $-1627.28 (ROI: -18.0%).

The Asian Handicap held at 0.5 but home odds shifted from 1.81 to 1.87; the home moneyline drifted out from 3.52 to 3.64.

### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 2.5. Average expected value was 37.0%, with a combined stake of $964. The sharpest edge was on Over 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 69.9% probability versus the market's implied 51.0% — a 18.9 percentage point gap at odds of 1.96. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-964.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 4 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10, oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Over/Under and Moneyline and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Over 1.5 and Kashima and Kashima +0.5. Average expected value was 29.1%, with a combined stake of $6370. The sharpest edge was on Kashima +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 82.2% probability versus the market's implied 45.5% — a 36.7 percentage point gap at odds of 2.2. **Result:** 3 of 10 trades won, netting $-3003.53. ### Wave 3 — Minute 58' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 58'. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Kashima -0.5. Average expected value was 52.0%, with a combined stake of $1702. The sharpest edge was on Kashima -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 91.8% probability versus the market's implied 42.1% — a 49.7 percentage point gap at odds of 2.375. **Result:** All 3 trades won, netting +$2340.25.

- **Minute 58'** — Asian Handicap Kashima -0.5: AI saw 91.8% vs market's 42.1% (49.7pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 58'** — Asian Handicap Kashima -0.5: AI saw 91.5% vs market's 42.1% (49.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 58'** — Asian Handicap Kashima -0.5: AI saw 91.1% vs market's 42.1% (49.0pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Kashima +0.5: AI saw 82.2% vs market's 45.5% (36.7pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Kashima +0.5: AI saw 81.7% vs market's 45.5% (36.2pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.

- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 4 trades, 2W/2L, $-124.26 (ROI: -4.7%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 4 trades, 2W/2L, $-157.58 (ROI: -6.0%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 4 trades, 2W/2L, $-181.45 (ROI: -6.9%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-200.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-964.00 (ROI: -100.0%)

Possession was 35–65 in Yokohama F. Marinos's deficit. Yokohama F. Marinos had 16 shots (3 on target) versus Kashima's 9 (3 on target). Corners: 9-3.