Vissel Kobe

1 - 0

Kyoto Sanga

Vissel Kobe hosted Kyoto Sanga in the J1 League, finishing 1-0. Goals: Rafael Elias (72'), Henrique Trevisan (78' OG). OddsFlow deployed 39 trades across 6 waves, achieving 33% precision with a net result of +$803.50 (ROI: +7.4%).

The Asian Handicap line moved from -0.75 to -0.5; the home moneyline drifted out from 1.72 to 1.91.

### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Kyoto Sanga. Average expected value was 37.2%, with a combined stake of $226. The sharpest edge was on Kyoto Sanga (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 26.8% probability versus the market's implied 19.6% — a 7.3 percentage point gap at odds of 5.11. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-226.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 15' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 15'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Kyoto Sanga -0.5 and Kyoto Sanga -0.75. Average expected value was 16.2%, with a combined stake of $290. The sharpest edge was on Kyoto Sanga -0.75 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 61.3% probability versus the market's implied 51.3% — a 10.0 percentage point gap at odds of 1.95. **Result:** All 3 trades lost, netting $-274.50. ### Wave 3 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 3 models (system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline and Over/Under markets, targeting Kyoto Sanga -0.5 and Draw and Under 1.5. Average expected value was 18.0%, with a combined stake of $4456. The sharpest edge was on Kyoto Sanga -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 63.6% probability versus the market's implied 51.0% — a 12.6 percentage point gap at odds of 1.96. **Result:** 3 of 18 trades won, netting $-706.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 33' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 33'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 9.5%, with a combined stake of $565. **Result:** All 3 trades lost, netting $-565.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 72' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 72'. 4 models (system4_BLEND_v10, oddsflow_core_v8.1, system4_MC_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Vissel Kobe +0.5 and Vissel Kobe -0.25 and Under 1.5 and Kyoto Sanga. Average expected value was 37.0%, with a combined stake of $4262. The sharpest edge was on Vissel Kobe +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 80.7% probability versus the market's implied 41.2% — a 39.5 percentage point gap at odds of 2.425. **Result:** 8 of 12 trades won, netting +$900.00. ### Wave 6 — Minute 78' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Vissel Kobe leading 1-0 at 78'. Henrique Trevisan scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Kyoto Sanga -1. Average expected value was 61.9%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Kyoto Sanga -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 97.2% probability versus the market's implied 37.4% — a 59.8 percentage point gap at odds of 2.675. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$1675.00.

- **Minute 78'** — Asian Handicap Kyoto Sanga -1: AI saw 97.2% vs market's 37.4% (59.8pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 78'** — Asian Handicap Kyoto Sanga -1: AI saw 96.9% vs market's 37.4% (59.6pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 72'** — Asian Handicap Vissel Kobe +0.5: AI saw 80.7% vs market's 41.2% (39.5pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 73'** — Asian Handicap Vissel Kobe +0.5: AI saw 80.2% vs market's 41.2% (39.0pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 72'** — Asian Handicap Vissel Kobe +0.5: AI saw 80.1% vs market's 41.2% (38.9pp gap). correctly identified.

- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 11 trades, 4W/7L, +$672.50 (ROI: +20.9%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 11 trades, 4W/7L, +$461.50 (ROI: +13.4%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 4 trades, 1W/2L/1V, +$275.50 (ROI: +34.9%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-226.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 12 trades, 4W/8L, $-380.00 (ROI: -12.1%)

Possession was 49–51 in Vissel Kobe's deficit. Vissel Kobe had 12 shots (2 on target) versus Kyoto Sanga's 9 (1 on target). Corners: 10-1.