Vissel Kobe5 - 0Kashima
Vissel KobeWhat went wrong? 4 trades, $-110 — the AI's post-mortem.
Match Overview
Vissel Kobe hosted Kashima in the J1 League, finishing 5-0. Goals: Y. Osako (28'), Y. Osako (50'), Diego (69'), R. Komatsu (89' pen), Y. Osako (90'). OddsFlow deployed 4 trades across 1 wave, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-110.00 (ROI: -100.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -0.25 but home odds shifted from 2 to 2.05; the Over/Under stayed at 2.25 with Over odds moving from 1.97 to 2.07.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 69' (Score: 2-0) **Context:** Vissel Kobe leading 2-0 at 69'. Diego scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 3.5. Average expected value was 53.0%, with a combined stake of $110. The sharpest edge was on Under 3.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 82.4% probability versus the market's implied 48.3% — a 34.1 percentage point gap at odds of 2.07. **Result:** All 4 trades lost, netting $-110.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 69'** — Over/Under Under 3.5: AI saw 82.4% vs market's 48.3% (34.1pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 69'** — Over/Under Under 3.5: AI saw 82.4% vs market's 48.3% (34.1pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 69'** — Over/Under Under 3.5: AI saw 82.3% vs market's 48.3% (34.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 69'** — Over/Under Under 3.5: AI saw 82.3% vs market's 48.3% (34.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **system4_MC_v10**: 2 trades, 0W/2L, $-55.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 2 trades, 0W/2L, $-55.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 38–62 in Vissel Kobe's deficit. Vissel Kobe had 16 shots (8 on target) versus Kashima's 8 (2 on target). Corners: 3-2.
Verdict
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: system4_MC_v10 at $-55.00.
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: HDP Sniper at $-55.00.
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