V-varen Nagasaki

2 - 2

Vissel Kobe

V-varen Nagasaki hosted Vissel Kobe in the J1 League, finishing 2-2. Goals: H. Yamaguchi (21'), Y. Muto (27'), M. Thuler (32'), Dudu Giusti (45'), Y. Osako (120' pen), Matheus Jesus (120' pen), M. Mitsuta (120' pen), N. Campbell (120' pen), Jean Patric (120' pen), Diego Pituca (120' pen). OddsFlow deployed 16 trades across 4 waves, achieving 100% precision with a net result of +$291.10 (ROI: +105.5%).

The Asian Handicap held at 0.75 but home odds shifted from 1.86 to 1.85; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.5 to 2.25.

### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting V-varen Nagasaki +0.75. Average expected value was 47.6%, with a combined stake of $60. The sharpest edge was on V-varen Nagasaki +0.75 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 74.6% probability versus the market's implied 49.8% — a 24.8 percentage point gap at odds of 2.01. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$59.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 14' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 14'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting V-varen Nagasaki +0.5. Average expected value was 31.8%, with a combined stake of $5. The sharpest edge was on V-varen Nagasaki +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 77.9% probability versus the market's implied 48.8% — a 29.1 percentage point gap at odds of 2.05. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$5.25. ### Wave 3 — Minute 33' (Score: 1-2) **Context:** Vissel Kobe leading 1-2 at 33'. M. Thuler scored moments ago. 4 models (oddsflow_core_v8.1, system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting V-varen Nagasaki +1.5 and V-varen Nagasaki +1. Average expected value was 46.3%, with a combined stake of $44. The sharpest edge was on V-varen Nagasaki +1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 84.6% probability versus the market's implied 36.4% — a 48.3 percentage point gap at odds of 2.75. **Result:** All 7 trades won, netting +$47.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 45' (Score: 1-2) **Context:** Vissel Kobe leading 1-2 at 45'. Dudu Giusti scored moments ago. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting V-varen Nagasaki +0.5. Average expected value was 57.4%, with a combined stake of $167. The sharpest edge was on V-varen Nagasaki +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 84.8% probability versus the market's implied 48.1% — a 36.8 percentage point gap at odds of 2.08. **Result:** All 6 trades won, netting +$179.85.

- **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap V-varen Nagasaki +1: AI saw 84.6% vs market's 36.4% (48.3pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap V-varen Nagasaki +1: AI saw 84.6% vs market's 36.4% (48.2pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap V-varen Nagasaki +1: AI saw 84.5% vs market's 36.4% (48.1pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 33'** — Asian Handicap V-varen Nagasaki +1.5: AI saw 95.5% vs market's 54.1% (41.5pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 36'** — Asian Handicap V-varen Nagasaki +1.5: AI saw 95.7% vs market's 55.6% (40.1pp gap). correctly identified.

- **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 4 trades, 4W/0L, +$73.70 (ROI: +108.4%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 4 trades, 4W/0L, +$73.70 (ROI: +108.4%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 4 trades, 4W/0L, +$72.65 (ROI: +108.4%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 2 trades, 2W/0L, +$59.00 (ROI: +98.3%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 2 trades, 2W/0L, +$12.05 (ROI: +92.7%)

Possession was 42–58 in V-varen Nagasaki's deficit. V-varen Nagasaki had 13 shots (5 on target) versus Vissel Kobe's 15 (6 on target). Corners: 5-3.