V-varen Nagasaki

2 - 1

Fagiano Okayama

V-varen Nagasaki hosted Fagiano Okayama in the J1 League, finishing 2-1. Goals: Y. Iwasaki (19'), Thiago (43'), Werik Popo (50'), Werik Popo (51'). OddsFlow deployed 8 trades across 4 waves, achieving 88% precision with a net result of +$3886.10 (ROI: +87.2%).

The Asian Handicap line moved from -0.25 to 0; the Over/Under stayed at 2.25 with Over odds moving from 1.91 to 1.98; the home moneyline drifted out from 2.47 to 2.78.

### Wave 1 — Minute 15' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 15'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Fagiano Okayama 0. Average expected value was 18.0%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Fagiano Okayama 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 70.0% probability versus the market's implied 54.8% — a 15.2 percentage point gap at odds of 1.825. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-200.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 25' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** V-varen Nagasaki leading 1-0 at 25'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Fagiano Okayama -0.5 and V-varen Nagasaki. Average expected value was 20.1%, with a combined stake of $2468. The sharpest edge was on Fagiano Okayama -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 78.6% probability versus the market's implied 45.5% — a 33.1 percentage point gap at odds of 2.2. **Result:** All 4 trades won, netting +$2488.60. ### Wave 3 — Minute 43' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** V-varen Nagasaki leading 1-0 at 43'. Thiago scored moments ago. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Fagiano Okayama -1.5. Average expected value was 52.4%, with a combined stake of $786. The sharpest edge was on Fagiano Okayama -1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 94.3% probability versus the market's implied 44.4% — a 49.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2.25. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$982.50. ### Wave 4 — Minute 52' (Score: 2-1) **Context:** V-varen Nagasaki leading 2-1 at 52'. Werik Popo scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 4.5. Average expected value was 11.6%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Under 4.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 69.6% probability versus the market's implied 61.9% — a 7.7 percentage point gap at odds of 1.615. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$615.00.

- **Minute 43'** — Asian Handicap Fagiano Okayama -1.5: AI saw 94.3% vs market's 44.4% (49.9pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Fagiano Okayama -0.5: AI saw 78.6% vs market's 45.5% (33.1pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Fagiano Okayama -0.5: AI saw 77.6% vs market's 45.5% (32.1pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 15'** — Asian Handicap Fagiano Okayama 0: AI saw 70.0% vs market's 54.8% (15.2pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.

- **system4_MC_v10**: 4 trades, 4W/0L, +$2547.50 (ROI: +100.7%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 3 trades, 3W/0L, +$1538.60 (ROI: +89.3%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-200.00 (ROI: -100.0%)

Possession was 49–51 in V-varen Nagasaki's deficit. V-varen Nagasaki had 11 shots (3 on target) versus Fagiano Okayama's 8 (3 on target). Corners: 5-3.