Tokyo Verdy0 - 6Yokohama F. Marinos
Tokyo VerdyWhy did AI enter 2 times at 0', 35' — and still finish $-32?
Match Overview
Tokyo Verdy hosted Yokohama F. Marinos in the J1 League, finishing 0-6. Goals: T. Kondo (25'), K. Tanimura (36'), Yuri Araujo (45'), K. Tanimura (46'), Yuri Araujo (59'), Tevis (90'). OddsFlow deployed 5 trades across 2 waves, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-32.00 (ROI: -100.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at 0 but home odds shifted from 1.89 to 1.88.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 2. Average expected value was 28.0%, with a combined stake of $10. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-10.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 35' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Yokohama F. Marinos leading 0-1 at 35'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Tokyo Verdy +0.5 and Tokyo Verdy +1.5. Average expected value was 49.7%, with a combined stake of $22. The sharpest edge was on Tokyo Verdy +1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 96.8% probability versus the market's implied 42.6% — a 54.3 percentage point gap at odds of 2.35. **Result:** All 4 trades lost, netting $-22.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 36'** — Asian Handicap Tokyo Verdy +1.5: AI saw 96.8% vs market's 42.6% (54.3pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 36'** — Asian Handicap Tokyo Verdy +1.5: AI saw 96.7% vs market's 42.6% (54.2pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap Tokyo Verdy +0.5: AI saw 82.4% vs market's 42.1% (40.3pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap Tokyo Verdy +0.5: AI saw 82.1% vs market's 42.1% (40.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-10.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 2 trades, 0W/2L, $-11.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 2 trades, 0W/2L, $-11.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 50–50 in Tokyo Verdy's deficit. Tokyo Verdy had 13 shots (4 on target) versus Yokohama F. Marinos's 15 (6 on target). Corners: 6-4.
Verdict
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: S5.1_Pre at $-10.00.
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: PreMatch Edge at $-10.00.
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