Shimizu S-pulse1 - 2Gamba Osaka
Shimizu S-pulseWhy did AI enter 3 times at 0', 43', 77' — and still finish $-192?
Match Overview
Shimizu S-pulse hosted Gamba Osaka in the J1 League, finishing 1-2. Goals: M. Yumiba (58'), H. Minamino (61'), Y. Yoshida (75' OG). OddsFlow deployed 8 trades across 3 waves, achieving 38% precision with a net result of $-192.38 (ROI: -90.5%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at 0 but home odds shifted from 2.09 to 2.11.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 2.5. Average expected value was 26.5%, with a combined stake of $10. The sharpest edge was on Under 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 67.3% probability versus the market's implied 53.2% — a 14.1 percentage point gap at odds of 1.88. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-10.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 43' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 43'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 1.5 and Under 1.25. Average expected value was 27.7%, with a combined stake of $191. The sharpest edge was on Under 1.25 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 68.1% probability versus the market's implied 48.1% — a 20.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2.08. **Result:** All 4 trades lost, netting $-191.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 77' (Score: 1-2) **Context:** Gamba Osaka leading 1-2 at 77'. Y. Yoshida scored moments ago. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, oddsflow_core_v8.1, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Shimizu S-pulse +1. Average expected value was 26.2%, with a combined stake of $12. The sharpest edge was on Shimizu S-pulse +1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 80.7% probability versus the market's implied 57.1% — a 23.6 percentage point gap at odds of 1.75. **Result:** All 3 trades won, netting +$8.63.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 77'** — Asian Handicap Shimizu S-pulse +1: AI saw 80.7% vs market's 57.1% (23.6pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 77'** — Asian Handicap Shimizu S-pulse +1: AI saw 80.2% vs market's 57.1% (23.1pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 77'** — Asian Handicap Shimizu S-pulse +1: AI saw 79.6% vs market's 57.1% (22.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 43'** — Over/Under Under 1.25: AI saw 68.1% vs market's 48.1% (20.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 43'** — Over/Under Under 1.25: AI saw 67.7% vs market's 48.1% (19.6pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$2.63 (ROI: +75.0%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-10.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 3 trades, 1W/2L, $-92.00 (ROI: -92.9%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 3 trades, 1W/2L, $-93.00 (ROI: -93.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 49–51 in Shimizu S-pulse's deficit. Shimizu S-pulse had 12 shots (2 on target) versus Gamba Osaka's 11 (3 on target). Corners: 5-1.
Verdict
A tough session at -90.5% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: oddsflow_core_v8.1 at +$2.63.
A tough session at -90.5% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: Oddsflow Core Strategy at +$2.63.
See AI signals as they happen
This report shows settled results. Get real-time AI signals during live matches.