Shimizu S-pulse

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Cerezo Osaka

Shimizu S-pulse hosted Cerezo Osaka in the J1 League, finishing 1-1. Goals: S. Tanaka (19'), Matheus Bueno (90' pen), A. Ahmedov (120' pen), M. Brunetti (120' pen), Thiago Andrade (120' pen), K. Chiba (120' pen), S. Tanaka (120' pen), Capixaba (120' pen), M. Nakajima (120' pen), Matheus Bueno (120' pen). OddsFlow deployed 16 trades across 7 waves, achieving 75% precision with a net result of +$4642.50 (ROI: +56.8%).

The Asian Handicap held at 0 but home odds shifted from 1.86 to 1.85.

### Wave 1 — Minute 15' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 15'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Cerezo Osaka 0. Average expected value was 14.9%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Cerezo Osaka 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 64.9% probability versus the market's implied 52.6% — a 12.2 percentage point gap at odds of 1.9. **Result:** 0 of 1 trades won, netting +$0.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Cerezo Osaka leading 0-1 at 25'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under and Moneyline and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Under 3.5 and Cerezo Osaka and Shimizu S-pulse +0.5. Average expected value was 18.6%, with a combined stake of $2817. The sharpest edge was on Shimizu S-pulse +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 75.3% probability versus the market's implied 43.5% — a 31.8 percentage point gap at odds of 2.3. **Result:** 3 of 5 trades won, netting +$962.10. ### Wave 3 — Minute 28' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Cerezo Osaka leading 0-1 at 28'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 3.5. Average expected value was 11.3%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Under 3.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 73.8% probability versus the market's implied 66.7% — a 7.1 percentage point gap at odds of 1.5. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$250.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 32' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Cerezo Osaka leading 0-1 at 32'. 2 models (system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under and Moneyline and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Under 2.5 and Cerezo Osaka and Shimizu S-pulse +0.5. Average expected value was 14.6%, with a combined stake of $2158. The sharpest edge was on Shimizu S-pulse +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 75.2% probability versus the market's implied 43.5% — a 31.8 percentage point gap at odds of 2.3. **Result:** 3 of 4 trades won, netting +$1580.40. ### Wave 5 — Minute 35' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Cerezo Osaka leading 0-1 at 35'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 2.5. Average expected value was 8.5%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Under 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 52.7% probability versus the market's implied 47.6% — a 5.1 percentage point gap at odds of 2.1. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$550.00. ### Wave 6 — Minute 62' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Cerezo Osaka leading 0-1 at 62'. 1 model (system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 1.5. Average expected value was 7.5%, with a combined stake of $500. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$250.00. ### Wave 7 — Minute 78' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Cerezo Osaka leading 0-1 at 78'. Cerezo Osaka made 4 substitutions. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Shimizu S-pulse +1. Average expected value was 25.5%, with a combined stake of $1500. The sharpest edge was on Shimizu S-pulse +1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 80.9% probability versus the market's implied 58.8% — a 22.1 percentage point gap at odds of 1.7. **Result:** All 3 trades won, netting +$1050.00.

- **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Shimizu S-pulse +0.5: AI saw 75.3% vs market's 43.5% (31.8pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 32'** — Asian Handicap Shimizu S-pulse +0.5: AI saw 75.2% vs market's 43.5% (31.8pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Shimizu S-pulse +0.5: AI saw 75.2% vs market's 43.5% (31.7pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 78'** — Asian Handicap Shimizu S-pulse +1: AI saw 80.9% vs market's 58.8% (22.1pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 78'** — Asian Handicap Shimizu S-pulse +1: AI saw 80.9% vs market's 58.8% (22.0pp gap). correctly identified.

- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 5 trades, 4W/1L, +$1583.00 (ROI: +59.5%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 5 trades, 4W/1L, +$1555.40 (ROI: +58.5%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 5 trades, 4W/1L, +$1504.10 (ROI: +56.6%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/0L/1V, +$0.00 (ROI: +0.0%)

Possession was 50–50 in Shimizu S-pulse's deficit. Shimizu S-pulse had 22 shots (8 on target) versus Cerezo Osaka's 7 (2 on target). Corners: 4-7.