Shimizu S-pulse

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Avispa Fukuoka

Shimizu S-pulse hosted Avispa Fukuoka in the J1 League, finishing 1-1. Goals: S. Usui (70'), Oh Se-Hun (75'), K. Okuno (120' pen), T. Kamijima (120' pen), Z. Uno (120' pen), Y. Tsujioka (120' pen), K. Chiba (120' pen), M. Brunetti (120' pen), Oh Se-Hun (120' pen). OddsFlow deployed 18 trades across 6 waves, achieving 61% precision with a net result of +$2943.42 (ROI: +31.5%).

The Asian Handicap remained steady at -0.25.

### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Avispa Fukuoka -0.25. Average expected value was 25.0%, with a combined stake of $601. The sharpest edge was on Avispa Fukuoka -0.25 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 61.3% probability versus the market's implied 49.0% — a 12.3 percentage point gap at odds of 2.04. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$312.52. ### Wave 2 — Minute 15' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 15'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Avispa Fukuoka 0. Average expected value was 32.1%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Avispa Fukuoka 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 68.3% probability versus the market's implied 38.5% — a 29.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2.6. **Result:** 0 of 1 trades won, netting +$0.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Avispa Fukuoka and Avispa Fukuoka 0 and Draw. Average expected value was 19.7%, with a combined stake of $2063. The sharpest edge was on Avispa Fukuoka 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 70.4% probability versus the market's implied 38.5% — a 31.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2.6. **Result:** 1 of 4 trades won, netting +$250.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 45' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 45'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline and Over/Under markets, targeting Draw and Over 0.5. Average expected value was 7.8%, with a combined stake of $1500. **Result:** All 3 trades won, netting +$1058.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 70' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 70'. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, oddsflow_core_v8.1, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Shimizu S-pulse +0.5 and Under 1.5. Average expected value was 35.3%, with a combined stake of $2895. The sharpest edge was on Shimizu S-pulse +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 80.7% probability versus the market's implied 38.5% — a 42.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2.6. **Result:** 2 of 5 trades won, netting $-295.00. ### Wave 6 — Minute 79' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after null's equalizer at 79'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Under 3.5 and Avispa Fukuoka -1. Average expected value was 38.5%, with a combined stake of $2072. The sharpest edge was on Avispa Fukuoka -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 97.3% probability versus the market's implied 48.2% — a 49.1 percentage point gap at odds of 2.075. **Result:** All 4 trades won, netting +$1617.90.

- **Minute 79'** — Asian Handicap Avispa Fukuoka -1: AI saw 97.3% vs market's 48.2% (49.1pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 79'** — Asian Handicap Avispa Fukuoka -1: AI saw 97.1% vs market's 48.2% (48.9pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 70'** — Asian Handicap Shimizu S-pulse +0.5: AI saw 80.7% vs market's 38.5% (42.2pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 70'** — Asian Handicap Shimizu S-pulse +0.5: AI saw 79.4% vs market's 38.5% (40.9pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Avispa Fukuoka 0: AI saw 70.4% vs market's 38.5% (31.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.

- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 7 trades, 5W/1L/1V, +$1693.88 (ROI: +44.9%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 8 trades, 5W/2L/1V, +$1437.03 (ROI: +33.8%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 0W/0L/1V, +$312.52 (ROI: +52.0%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 2 trades, 0W/1L/1V, $-500.00 (ROI: -71.4%)

Possession was 57–43 in Shimizu S-pulse's favor. Shimizu S-pulse had 8 shots (1 on target) versus Avispa Fukuoka's 8 (2 on target). Corners: 4-2.