Sanfrecce Hiroshima

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Vissel Kobe

Sanfrecce Hiroshima hosted Vissel Kobe in the J1 League, finishing 1-1. Goals: M. Kato (42'), M. Kato (43'), R. Komatsu (63'), Y. Muto (120' pen), Y. Osako (120' pen), A. Suzuki (120' pen), S. Higashi (120' pen), M. Hidaka (120' pen), R. Germain (120' pen), R. Hirose (120' pen), S. Sasaki (120' pen), R. Komatsu (120' pen). OddsFlow deployed 21 trades across 5 waves, achieving 57% precision with a net result of +$4318.21 (ROI: +39.7%).

The Asian Handicap line moved from -0.5 to -0.25; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.25 to 2.5; the home moneyline drifted out from 1.99 to 2.15.

### Wave 1 — Minute 15' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 15'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Vissel Kobe 0. Average expected value was 16.0%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Vissel Kobe 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 58.8% probability versus the market's implied 45.5% — a 13.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2.2. **Result:** 0 of 1 trades won, netting +$0.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Vissel Kobe 0. Average expected value was 20.5%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Vissel Kobe 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 61.0% probability versus the market's implied 42.6% — a 18.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2.35. **Result:** 0 of 2 trades won, netting +$0.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 29' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 29'. 2 models (system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Draw and Vissel Kobe 0. Average expected value was 10.8%, with a combined stake of $1500. The sharpest edge was on Vissel Kobe 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 62.1% probability versus the market's implied 42.1% — a 20.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2.375. **Result:** 2 of 3 trades won, netting +$1875.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 44' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Sanfrecce Hiroshima leading 1-0 at 44'. M. Kato scored moments ago. 3 models (system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline and Over/Under and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Sanfrecce Hiroshima and Over 1.5 and Vissel Kobe -1 and Under 2.5. Average expected value was 25.5%, with a combined stake of $6678. The sharpest edge was on Vissel Kobe -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 92.7% probability versus the market's implied 51.9% — a 40.7 percentage point gap at odds of 1.925. **Result:** 9 of 12 trades won, netting +$2967.21. ### Wave 5 — Minute 64' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after R. Komatsu's equalizer at 63'. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Over 2.5 and Draw. Average expected value was 9.6%, with a combined stake of $1500. The sharpest edge was on Over 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 70.0% probability versus the market's implied 63.7% — a 6.3 percentage point gap at odds of 1.571. **Result:** 1 of 3 trades won, netting $-524.00.

- **Minute 44'** — Asian Handicap Vissel Kobe -1: AI saw 92.7% vs market's 51.9% (40.7pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 44'** — Asian Handicap Vissel Kobe -1: AI saw 92.1% vs market's 51.9% (40.2pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 44'** — Asian Handicap Vissel Kobe -1: AI saw 92.0% vs market's 51.9% (40.1pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 44'** — Moneyline Sanfrecce Hiroshima: AI saw 68.9% vs market's 40.0% (28.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 44'** — Moneyline Sanfrecce Hiroshima: AI saw 68.9% vs market's 40.0% (28.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.

- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 6 trades, 4W/1L/1V, +$1517.76 (ROI: +46.2%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 7 trades, 4W/2L/1V, +$1404.85 (ROI: +37.9%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 7 trades, 4W/2L/1V, +$1395.60 (ROI: +37.8%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/0L/1V, +$0.00 (ROI: +0.0%)

Possession was 59–41 in Sanfrecce Hiroshima's favor. Sanfrecce Hiroshima had 21 shots (7 on target) versus Vissel Kobe's 9 (2 on target). Corners: 6-1.