Sanfrecce Hiroshima4 - 2Nagoya Grampus
Sanfrecce HiroshimaWhy did AI enter 3 times at 10', 34', 47' — and still finish $-323?
Match Overview
Sanfrecce Hiroshima hosted Nagoya Grampus in the J1 League, finishing 4-2. Goals: S. Nakamura (33'), Y. Yamagishi (45'), H. Kawabe (45'), S. Nakano (46'), S. Nakano (47'), A. Suzuki (56'), T. Morishima (67'), T. Morishima (68'). OddsFlow deployed 16 trades across 3 waves, achieving 6% precision with a net result of $-322.60 (ROI: -92.4%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -0.75 but home odds shifted from 1.88 to 1.98.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 10' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 10'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Sanfrecce Hiroshima -1. Average expected value was 21.6%, with a combined stake of $4. The sharpest edge was on Sanfrecce Hiroshima -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 57.8% probability versus the market's implied 38.5% — a 19.3 percentage point gap at odds of 2.6. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$6.40. ### Wave 2 — Minute 34' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Sanfrecce Hiroshima leading 1-0 at 34'. S. Nakamura scored moments ago. 4 models (oddsflow_core_v8.1, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Nagoya Grampus -1 and Under 3.5. Average expected value was 25.2%, with a combined stake of $20. The sharpest edge was on Nagoya Grampus -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 66.3% probability versus the market's implied 38.5% — a 27.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2.6. **Result:** 0 of 5 trades won, netting $-4.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 47' (Score: 3-1) **Context:** Sanfrecce Hiroshima leading 3-1 at 47'. S. Nakano scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 5.5 and Under 3.75 and Under 3.5 and Under 4.5. Average expected value was 25.9%, with a combined stake of $325. The sharpest edge was on Under 3.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 76.4% probability versus the market's implied 50.0% — a 26.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2. **Result:** All 10 trades lost, netting $-325.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap Nagoya Grampus -1: AI saw 66.3% vs market's 38.5% (27.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap Nagoya Grampus -1: AI saw 66.2% vs market's 38.5% (27.7pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 34'** — Asian Handicap Nagoya Grampus -1: AI saw 66.0% vs market's 38.5% (27.6pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap Nagoya Grampus -1: AI saw 65.4% vs market's 38.5% (26.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 48'** — Over/Under Under 3.5: AI saw 76.4% vs market's 50.0% (26.4pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 2 trades, 1W/0L/1V, +$6.40 (ROI: +80.0%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 2 trades, 0W/1L/1V, $-4.00 (ROI: -50.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 6 trades, 0W/5L/1V, $-162.00 (ROI: -97.6%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 6 trades, 0W/5L/1V, $-163.00 (ROI: -97.6%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 38–62 in Sanfrecce Hiroshima's deficit. Sanfrecce Hiroshima had 12 shots (5 on target) versus Nagoya Grampus's 11 (4 on target). Corners: 2-6.
Verdict
A tough session at -92.4% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: oddsflow_core_v8.1 at +$6.40.
A tough session at -92.4% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: Oddsflow Core Strategy at +$6.40.
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