Nagoya Grampus2 - 2Machida Zelvia
Nagoya GrampusWhat went wrong? 4 trades, $-108 — the AI's post-mortem.
Match Overview
Nagoya Grampus hosted Machida Zelvia in the J1 League, finishing 2-2. Goals: H. Nakamura (6'), Y. Kimura (10'), Y. Asano (60'), Erik (78'), T. Takamine (90'). OddsFlow deployed 4 trades across 1 wave, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-108.00 (ROI: -100.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
Pre-match odds showed minimal movement.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 78' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after Erik's equalizer at 78'. Nagoya Grampus made 4 substitutions. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 3.5. Average expected value was 34.0%, with a combined stake of $108. The sharpest edge was on Under 3.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 86.1% probability versus the market's implied 61.0% — a 25.1 percentage point gap at odds of 1.64. **Result:** All 4 trades lost, netting $-108.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 78'** — Over/Under Under 3.5: AI saw 86.1% vs market's 61.0% (25.1pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 78'** — Over/Under Under 3.5: AI saw 86.1% vs market's 61.0% (25.1pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 78'** — Over/Under Under 3.5: AI saw 85.8% vs market's 61.0% (24.8pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 78'** — Over/Under Under 3.5: AI saw 85.8% vs market's 61.0% (24.8pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **system4_MC_v10**: 2 trades, 0W/2L, $-54.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 2 trades, 0W/2L, $-54.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 58–42 in Nagoya Grampus's favor. Nagoya Grampus had 12 shots (7 on target) versus Machida Zelvia's 16 (8 on target). Corners: 1-1.
Verdict
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: system4_MC_v10 at $-54.00.
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: HDP Sniper at $-54.00.
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