Nagoya Grampus3 - 0Kyoto Sanga
Nagoya GrampusWhy did AI enter 3 times at 0', 15', 25' — and still finish $-936?
Match Overview
Nagoya Grampus hosted Kyoto Sanga in the J1 League, finishing 3-0. Goals: Y. Yamagishi (9'), Y. Yamagishi (29'), Y. Yamagishi (90'). OddsFlow deployed 8 trades across 3 waves, achieving 50% precision with a net result of $-936.06 (ROI: -18.2%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from -0.25 to -0.5; the Over/Under stayed at 2.5 with Over odds moving from 1.95 to 1.9; the home moneyline shortened from 2.32 to 1.95.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Nagoya Grampus. Average expected value was 20.0%, with a combined stake of $454. The sharpest edge was on Nagoya Grampus (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 57.1% probability versus the market's implied 47.6% — a 9.5 percentage point gap at odds of 2.1. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$499.40. ### Wave 2 — Minute 15' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Nagoya Grampus leading 1-0 at 15'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Kyoto Sanga -1. Average expected value was 32.8%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Kyoto Sanga -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 76.6% probability versus the market's implied 46.5% — a 30.1 percentage point gap at odds of 2.15. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-200.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 25' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Nagoya Grampus leading 1-0 at 25'. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Kyoto Sanga -1 and Under 3.5. Average expected value was 25.6%, with a combined stake of $4478. The sharpest edge was on Kyoto Sanga -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 80.5% probability versus the market's implied 47.6% — a 32.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2.1. **Result:** 3 of 6 trades won, netting $-1235.46.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Kyoto Sanga -1: AI saw 80.5% vs market's 47.6% (32.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Kyoto Sanga -1: AI saw 80.5% vs market's 47.6% (32.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Kyoto Sanga -1: AI saw 79.4% vs market's 47.6% (31.8pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 15'** — Asian Handicap Kyoto Sanga -1: AI saw 76.6% vs market's 46.5% (30.1pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Over/Under Under 3.5: AI saw 75.3% vs market's 63.7% (11.7pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$499.40 (ROI: +110.0%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-200.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 2 trades, 1W/1L, $-392.87 (ROI: -26.5%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 2 trades, 1W/1L, $-401.88 (ROI: -26.2%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 2 trades, 1W/1L, $-440.71 (ROI: -30.1%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 40–60 in Nagoya Grampus's deficit. Nagoya Grampus had 14 shots (6 on target) versus Kyoto Sanga's 9 (4 on target). Corners: 8-5.
Verdict
A tough session at -18.2% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: S5.1_Pre at +$499.40.
A tough session at -18.2% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: PreMatch Edge at +$499.40.
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