Mito Hollyhock1 - 4Urawa
Mito HollyhockWhy did AI enter 3 times at 0', 36', 40' — and still finish $-4745?
Match Overview
Mito Hollyhock hosted Urawa in the J1 League, finishing 1-4. Goals: K. Yasui (24'), H. Komori (70'), I. Kiese (77'), I. Kiese (79'), I. Kiese (80'), H. Yamamoto (84'). Mito Hollyhock received a red card (K. Sasaki, 49'). OddsFlow deployed 11 trades across 3 waves, achieving 9% precision with a net result of $-4745.00 (ROI: -66.9%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at 0.25 but home odds shifted from 1.82 to 1.97; the home moneyline drifted out from 3.14 to 3.51.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Urawa. Average expected value was 52.2%, with a combined stake of $1044. The sharpest edge was on Urawa (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 67.6% probability versus the market's implied 44.4% — a 23.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2.25. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$1305.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 36' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Urawa leading 0-1 at 36'. 4 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10, oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Mito Hollyhock +1.5 and Under 2.5. Average expected value was 18.7%, with a combined stake of $4550. The sharpest edge was on Mito Hollyhock +1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 82.2% probability versus the market's implied 58.8% — a 23.4 percentage point gap at odds of 1.7. **Result:** All 7 trades lost, netting $-4550.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 40' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Urawa leading 0-1 at 40'. 3 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Mito Hollyhock +1. Average expected value was 19.6%, with a combined stake of $1500. The sharpest edge was on Mito Hollyhock +1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 55.0% probability versus the market's implied 37.4% — a 17.6 percentage point gap at odds of 2.675. **Result:** All 3 trades lost, netting $-1500.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 37'** — Asian Handicap Mito Hollyhock +1.5: AI saw 82.2% vs market's 58.8% (23.4pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 36'** — Asian Handicap Mito Hollyhock +1.5: AI saw 82.2% vs market's 58.8% (23.3pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 0'** — Moneyline Urawa: AI saw 67.6% vs market's 44.4% (23.2pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 36'** — Asian Handicap Mito Hollyhock +1.5: AI saw 81.8% vs market's 58.8% (22.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 36'** — Asian Handicap Mito Hollyhock +1.5: AI saw 81.7% vs market's 58.8% (22.8pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$1305.00 (ROI: +125.0%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-200.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 3 trades, 0W/3L, $-1943.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 3 trades, 0W/3L, $-1946.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 3 trades, 0W/3L, $-1961.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 34–66 in Mito Hollyhock's deficit. Mito Hollyhock had 5 shots (2 on target) versus Urawa's 16 (7 on target). Corners: 0-7.
Verdict
A tough session at -66.9% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: S5.1_Pre at +$1305.00.
A tough session at -66.9% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: PreMatch Edge at +$1305.00.
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