Mito Hollyhock1 - 3Kawasaki Frontale
Mito HollyhockWhy did AI enter 4 times at 0', 12', 35', 60' — and still finish $-56?
Match Overview
Mito Hollyhock hosted Kawasaki Frontale in the J1 League, finishing 1-3. Goals: K. Mochiyama (58'), K. Mochiyama (59'), A. Watanabe (75'), K. Mochiyama (78'), K. Mochiyama (79'), K. Mochiyama (85'), Patryck (90'). OddsFlow deployed 8 trades across 4 waves, achieving 13% precision with a net result of $-55.50 (ROI: -69.4%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at 0.25 but home odds shifted from 1.87 to 1.92.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 2.5. Average expected value was 35.4%, with a combined stake of $53. The sharpest edge was on Under 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 68.2% probability versus the market's implied 50.3% — a 18.0 percentage point gap at odds of 1.99. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-53.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 12' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 12'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Kawasaki Frontale +0.5. Average expected value was 7.5%, with a combined stake of $4. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$5.50. ### Wave 3 — Minute 35' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 35'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 1.5. Average expected value was 20.8%, with a combined stake of $8. The sharpest edge was on Under 1.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 65.1% probability versus the market's implied 47.6% — a 17.5 percentage point gap at odds of 2.1. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-8.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 60' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Kawasaki Frontale leading 0-1 at 60'. K. Mochiyama scored moments ago. 3 models (oddsflow_core_v8.1, system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Mito Hollyhock +1. Average expected value was 24.6%, with a combined stake of $15. The sharpest edge was on Mito Hollyhock +1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 77.6% probability versus the market's implied 55.6% — a 22.1 percentage point gap at odds of 1.8. **Result:** 0 of 3 trades won, netting +$0.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 61'** — Asian Handicap Mito Hollyhock +1: AI saw 77.6% vs market's 55.6% (22.1pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 61'** — Asian Handicap Mito Hollyhock +1: AI saw 77.7% vs market's 55.6% (22.1pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 60'** — Asian Handicap Mito Hollyhock +1: AI saw 77.1% vs market's 56.3% (20.8pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 0'** — Over/Under Under 2.5: AI saw 68.2% vs market's 50.3% (18.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 0'** — Over/Under Under 2.5: AI saw 68.2% vs market's 50.5% (17.7pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 2 trades, 1W/0L/1V, +$5.50 (ROI: +61.1%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 2 trades, 0W/1L/1V, $-4.00 (ROI: -44.4%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 2 trades, 0W/1L/1V, $-4.00 (ROI: -44.4%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 2 trades, 0W/2L, $-53.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 43–57 in Mito Hollyhock's deficit. Mito Hollyhock had 11 shots (3 on target) versus Kawasaki Frontale's 17 (5 on target). Corners: 4-3.
Verdict
A tough session at -69.4% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: oddsflow_core_v8.1 at +$5.50.
A tough session at -69.4% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: Oddsflow Core Strategy at +$5.50.
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