Machida Zelvia

2 - 0

Yokohama F. Marinos

Machida Zelvia hosted Yokohama F. Marinos in the J1 League, finishing 2-0. Goals: Erik (53'), Erik (54'), S. Fujio (66'). OddsFlow deployed 8 trades across 5 waves, achieving 38% precision with a net result of +$962.50 (ROI: +18.0%).

The Asian Handicap held at -0.75 but home odds shifted from 2.03 to 1.99.

### Wave 1 — Minute 15' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 15'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Yokohama F. Marinos 0. Average expected value was 21.2%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Yokohama F. Marinos 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 59.9% probability versus the market's implied 41.2% — a 18.6 percentage point gap at odds of 2.425. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-200.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Yokohama F. Marinos 0. Average expected value was 23.7%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Yokohama F. Marinos 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 61.4% probability versus the market's implied 40.0% — a 21.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2.5. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-1000.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 55' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Machida Zelvia leading 1-0 at 55'. Erik scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Yokohama F. Marinos -1. Average expected value was 53.7%, with a combined stake of $2065. The sharpest edge was on Yokohama F. Marinos -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 94.9% probability versus the market's implied 43.5% — a 51.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2.3. **Result:** 0 of 2 trades won, netting +$0.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 62' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Machida Zelvia leading 1-0 at 62'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 1.5. Average expected value was 9.2%, with a combined stake of $500. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$266.50. ### Wave 5 — Minute 66' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Machida Zelvia leading 1-0 at 66'. S. Fujio scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 2.5. Average expected value was 43.4%, with a combined stake of $1580. The sharpest edge was on Under 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 85.8% probability versus the market's implied 45.5% — a 40.3 percentage point gap at odds of 2.2. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$1896.00.

- **Minute 55'** — Asian Handicap Yokohama F. Marinos -1: AI saw 94.9% vs market's 43.5% (51.4pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 55'** — Asian Handicap Yokohama F. Marinos -1: AI saw 94.5% vs market's 43.5% (51.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 66'** — Over/Under Under 2.5: AI saw 85.8% vs market's 45.5% (40.3pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 66'** — Over/Under Under 2.5: AI saw 85.6% vs market's 45.5% (40.1pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Yokohama F. Marinos 0: AI saw 61.4% vs market's 40.0% (21.4pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.

- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 4 trades, 2W/1L/1V, +$581.30 (ROI: +21.4%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 3 trades, 1W/1L/1V, +$581.20 (ROI: +23.9%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-200.00 (ROI: -100.0%)

Possession was 45–55 in Machida Zelvia's deficit. Machida Zelvia had 8 shots (2 on target) versus Yokohama F. Marinos's 6 (2 on target). Corners: 4-1.