Machida Zelvia

1 - 0

Urawa

Machida Zelvia hosted Urawa in the J1 League, finishing 1-0. Goals: Erik (10'). OddsFlow deployed 9 trades across 3 waves, achieving 100% precision with a net result of +$232.32 (ROI: +96.0%).

The Asian Handicap held at -0.25 but home odds shifted from 1.95 to 2.09; the Over/Under stayed at 2.25 with Over odds moving from 1.96 to 2.05; the home moneyline drifted out from 2.29 to 2.45.

### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 2.25. Average expected value was 31.4%, with a combined stake of $10. The sharpest edge was on Under 2.25 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 63.9% probability versus the market's implied 54.1% — a 9.9 percentage point gap at odds of 1.85. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$8.50. ### Wave 2 — Minute 12' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Machida Zelvia leading 1-0 at 12'. Erik scored moments ago. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Urawa -1. Average expected value was 38.5%, with a combined stake of $8. The sharpest edge was on Urawa -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 92.4% probability versus the market's implied 57.1% — a 35.3 percentage point gap at odds of 1.75. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$6.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 35' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Machida Zelvia leading 1-0 at 35'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Urawa -1 and Under 2.5 and Under 2.25. Average expected value was 40.2%, with a combined stake of $224. The sharpest edge was on Urawa -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 95.2% probability versus the market's implied 53.3% — a 41.9 percentage point gap at odds of 1.875. **Result:** All 7 trades won, netting +$217.82.

- **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap Urawa -1: AI saw 95.2% vs market's 53.3% (41.9pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap Urawa -1: AI saw 94.9% vs market's 53.3% (41.6pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 12'** — Asian Handicap Urawa -1: AI saw 92.4% vs market's 57.1% (35.3pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 37'** — Over/Under Under 2.25: AI saw 74.4% vs market's 46.7% (27.7pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 37'** — Over/Under Under 2.25: AI saw 73.0% vs market's 46.7% (26.2pp gap). correctly identified.

- **system4_MC_v10**: 4 trades, 4W/0L, +$150.91 (ROI: +93.2%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 3 trades, 3W/0L, +$66.91 (ROI: +107.9%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$8.50 (ROI: +85.0%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$6.00 (ROI: +75.0%)

Possession was 39–61 in Machida Zelvia's deficit. Machida Zelvia had 15 shots (4 on target) versus Urawa's 15 (4 on target). Corners: 5-3.